Moscow’s new circumferential rail line

There are only a tiny number of fully developed circumferential metro lines in the world, that is, circular or ring lines that intersect with several radial lines and that therefore enormously increase potential interconnections. Curiously, many of these lines were not really planned as circumferential metro lines at all. The earliest example is the Circle Line in London, which runs on a right of way that mostly dates to the 1860s and 1870s. The “Inner Circle” was a byproduct of the Metropolitan and Metropolitan District Railways’ need to bypass the central part of the City of London and was not bisected by radial “tube” lines until the 1890s. Tokyo’s Yamanote line, probably the busiest urban circumferential line in the world, has in some ways a similar history. It’s a late 19th-/early 20th-century railroad line that existed before Tokyo had any subway lines. Beijing’s first Ring Line, completed in 1987, was also built before there were a substantial number of radial lines to connect with. It was essentially constructed in conjunction with the removal of the old city wall.

Moscow’s Ring Line was probably the first circumferential line planned as such. It was built between 1950 and 1954 when Moscow had three radial lines crossing in its center. The Ring Line, running very approximately 3 km from the city center, not only increased connections but also provided access to most of the mainline railway terminals. Moscow’s original Ring Line was in some sense a model for later planned ring lines: the circular part of Seoul’s Line 2; Shanghai’s Line 4; Beijing’s second Ring Line (Line 10); the Oedo Line in Tokyo (run as a closed U rather than a circle); the not-yet-quite-complete Circle Line in Singapore; Taipei’s planned Circle Line; and the projected Grand Paris Express line. All of these were built—or are planned to be built—to complement a substantial number of radial lines.

Moscow has just acquired its second circumferential line, the 54-km-long Moscow Central Ring Line (Московское центральное кольцо, which can also be translated Moscow Central Circle Line), which runs at an average distance of approximately 8 km from the city center.

Map, Central Ring Line and older Metro lines, Moscow, Russia

Map of the Central Ring Line, showing its relationship to the older, mostly radial Metro lines. (Two of the short non-radial lines are isolated fragments of Moscow’s planned third circumferential line). Raw GIS data (which I’ve had to modify) are from OpenStreetMap. Map compiled with ArcGIS.

The Central Ring Line opened on September 10, and I rode it last week. Like Tokyo’s Yamanote line, it was originally built as a railroad line. The tracks and right of way, controlled by Russian Railways, had been used only for freight for nearly 100 years. A decision was made a few years ago to reuse the right of way for a second circumferential passenger line. The tracks were completely rebuilt, and the line was electrified. The trains are still run by Russian Railways, but the line is labeled Line 14 of the Metro, and a Metro ticket provides access. The stations on the line were self-consciously set up to be as close to Metro stations as possible, although there are some gaps of as much as 750 meters, and there are as yet hardly any underground passages between the older Metro lines and the Central Ring Line.1 Moscow uses electronic tickets only, so free transfers present no administrative difficulties, but long outdoor walks in January are probably not much fun.

moscow-mtsk-line-crossing-moscow-river-w-moscow-city

Central Ring Line train crossing the Moscow River. Note Moskva-Siti in the background.

The trains are state-of-the-art. The Lastochka rolling stock is modern. There is free wifi. Stations have countdown clocks. Verbal and visual announcements are made in Russian and English. Bicycles may be brought on board. The trains even have toilets. The author of a newspaper story in Novaia gazeta said that riding the trains made her feel that she was in Europe.2

moscow-bicycles-in-delavoi-tsentr-station

Delavoĭ t͡sentr station. Note the bicycles.

Trains do not run as often as on the traditional Metro lines, where headways of 90 or 95 seconds are common. They only operate every six to twelve minutes depending on the time of day. Trains for the moment are much shorter than the stations. Most of the trains I took were pretty full, but there were only a few standees. This suggests that current service levels approximately meet needs. Of course, a twelve minute wait for a train can play havoc with a commute.

moscow-inside-mtsk-train

Inside a train. Note the Roman-alphabet sign (it alternates with a Cyrillic sign).

The logic underlying the building of the line is the same logic underlying the building of other circumferential lines. The connectivity of the Metro system has been increased enormously. Movement from one suburban area to another no longer requires travel to the center. The line was also built to reduce crowding on central city lines and especially the original Ring Line. The Moscow Metro, despite the growth of automobile use in the city, is still patronized as heavily as it’s ever been. There are approximately 6,000,000 passengers a day, and trains can be very crowded. Moscow’s population, unlike that of most European cities, has been growing quickly, so some kind of relief has been felt to be essential.

The Moscow Central Ring Line has another function. It helps redress a fundamental imbalance in Moscow’s geography. The city’s center has been booming.3 Relatively wealthy people have increasingly been choosing to live there, and there are elaborate and growing facilities for tourists. The center is full of restored (or reconstructed!) historical buildings, shiny new hotels, restaurants, and high-end shops. Much of the central city has been rearranged so that in many ways it’s become more like a Western European city. There are heavily-used pedestrianized streets, for example, and even some bicycle paths (although, except for those in parks, these seem to be very lightly used). The Central Ring Line, especially in its eastern half, directly serves some of Moscow’s rather grubby inner suburbs. A newspaper story even called it “a gift from the powerful to the poor.”4 If it was a gift, it was something of a Trojan horse. The industrial areas through which much of the Line passes are overdue for redevelopment, and one of the goals of the establishment of the Central Ring Line was to encourage this process. One old industrial (and mining!) area next to the line has already become “Moskva-Siti” (more formally the Moscow International Business Center), the location of six of Europe’s seven tallest buildings (see photo above).

I had last been in Moscow in 2000, and it was clear then that the rise of automobile ownership had had an unusually harsh effect on the quality of life for non-automobile users. Car drivers seemed never to give pedestrians the right-of-way and paid little attention to red lights, and they felt able to park anywhere.

Things have changed. Automobile drivers are now far more likely to stop at crosswalks for pedestrians than drivers in most of the United States. Red lights are usually obeyed. Parking rules are often respected. It’s not that Moscow has become a paradise for pedestrians. It can be a very long wait for red lights to change. Nothing has been done about Soviet planning’s insistence that pedestrians cross major streets through tunnels—which never have escalator access. And the hard-to-avoid, enormously wide prospekty that were bulldozed through the city during Soviet times now carry mind-bogglingly large amounts of noisy, polluting traffic and are very peculiar places for casual walking. But Moscow really isn’t a bad place for pedestrians at all, and there are a lot of them. You will have company in even the most pedestrian-unfriendly places. Some Muscovites seem to be in the habit of walking nearly as much as, say, some New Yorkers.

A factor here is that rail rapid transit—an essential complement to comfortable pedestrian life in most big cities—is once again being heavily supported by the government. The Metro remains one of the wonders of the world. Even if ponderous Soviet aesthetics are not your thing, a few of the stations in the central city would seem extraordinary to anyone. Trains run as frequently as they do anywhere. And the Metro is growing more than any other European rail transit system. The Central Ring Line is not the only new route. Several additional new line segments have opened recently, and more are on the way. The largest-scale component of this will be the Third Interchange Contour (Третий пересадочный контур in Russian), a third circumferential line, overlapping (and somewhat to the south of) the Central Ring Line and more fully integrated with existing Metro lines. For a city like Moscow, where settlement extends more or less evenly in all directions, a system of multiple radial and circumferential rail transit lines—which transit blogger Jarrett Walker calls a “polar grid“—really makes sense, and the fact that plans to build this are actually being carried out is pretty impressive.

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Is Chicago building too much?

Even though its population is stable or declining, Chicago has been building a great deal.5 Figures from the Census Bureau suggest that this is indeed an odd situation. Here’s a chart showing the relationship between residential building permits issued in 2015 and estimated change in population from 2014 to 2015 for American metropolitan statistical areas:6

Building permits and population change

And here’s another that shows the relationship between the valuation of these 2015 residential building permits and (again) estimated change in population from 2014 to 2015 for American metropolitan statistical areas:

Building permit valuations and population change

These graphs require a bit of explanation. Note that:

[1] The data shown are for metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), not cities and not “combined statistical areas” (CSAs) (the latter would subsume Baltimore, Riverside, and San Jose, for example, into larger units). It is possible to get building permit data for “places” (like Chicago), but, because different cities have different relationships to their MSAs, MSA-level data may be more useful for urban-area-to-urban-area comparisons.

[2] The graphs identify a few large urban areas by codes that (I hope) are easy to interpret. “Chi”=Chicago.

[3] 2014-2015 population change is estimated data. Some have questioned the Census Bureau’s determination that the Chicago MSA suffered a population loss in this period.

[4] Results would have been bit different had I chosen different years for the graphs (for example population change or permits from 2010 to 2015)—but they would not have been very different. There is a pretty high correlation between data sets for different years.

[5] Not every housing permit leads to construction.

There is, in general, a close relationship between the number of building permits and the size of population change (correlation= .891, r-squared=.793), and there is nearly as high a correlation between permit valuations and the size of population change (correlation=.888, r-squared=.789). Urban areas that are growing fastest build more.

Note the extent to which Chicago is an outlier. It is building much more than its population loss suggests it should be. (New York, often accused of not building enough, is also building more than its population change would predict. San Francisco, also criticized for building too little, seems to be building nearly as much as it should be given its medium-high population growth.)

Of course, any healthy city, even if it’s losing population, is going to want to do some building. Older structures do need replacement. But it’s not likely to build an enormous amount.

Is Chicago building too much? A case could be made. The fact that real estate in Chicago remains much cheaper than in coastal America would provide some support.

Of course, Chicago, like all American cities, has a complicated geography. While some parts of the Chicago area are losing population quickly, other areas are growing. One reason that Chicago is building so much is that areas of population loss and areas of population growth barely overlap at all.

Population loss on the largest scale has been occurring in certain African-American neighborhoods (click here, here, and here for maps). People have been leaving troubled places like Englewood on the South Side and Lawndale on the West Side for decades. Furthermore, in the first decade of the 21st century, the closure of the housing projects caused near total loss of population in a few tracts. There is little new building in these neighborhoods (with the exception of the area on the Near North Side where the Cabrini-Green housing project once stood, which has begun to acquire expensive high-rise housing).

There has also been a slow loss of population in a few generally stable neighborhoods, for example, along the North Side Lakefront, throughout the “bungalow belt” in the outer parts of the city, and in some first-tier suburbs. In these areas, aging of the population, declining family size, and gentrification (in varying proportions) have resulted in minor population loss. There is generally only a small amount of new building in these areas (new housing on the North Side Lakefront would be very attractive, but NIMBYism and the 1970s downzoning make new construction there difficult).

Population gains and substantial new construction have mostly taken place in distant suburbs, within two or three miles of the Loop, and in certain parts of the North Side. New housing is still replacing farmland in the outer urban area. And there has been large-scale replacement (or renovation) of industrial buildings, older office towers, run-down housing, and parking lots near downtown, a process that goes back at least to the construction of Marina City in 1964—and perhaps even further on the North Side Lakefront, which never ceased to be an attractive place to live for hundreds of thousands of people.

It is in these central areas where housing permit valuations in the Chicago area are highest. Is Chicago building too much? The fact that builders keep building suggests that they’re pretty sure that there’s still a market for their products. Slowly rising rents imply that they’re right. (Condo prices are generally still lower than they were ten years ago, however. Most new apartment buildings are rentals.)

The increased residential densities of the inner city generally have the support of many powerful forces: government agencies like the Department of Zoning and the Department of Planning and Development; non-governmental organizations like the Metropolitan Planning Council; corporations that appreciate the advantages of a “vibrant” city center; and urban theorists who favor density.7 There is no doubt that many ordinary Chicagoans as well are delighted by the dynamism of the central city.

Edward Glaeser has even argued that Chicago’s habit of continuing to build makes it different from just about all other older, denser American cities.8 The resulting relative inexpensiveness of real estate is, according to this analysis, one of the reasons that central Chicago is healthy, since it makes it an attractive place to major corporations. Corporate employees are not faced with the kind of housing-cost challenge that they’d encounter, for example, in New York or San Francisco. The implication here is that, if Chicago built less and its housing became more expensive, corporations would leave, there would be less demand for housing, and prices, eventually, would fall. Chicago may be stuck with continuing to build.

Chicago’s relatively inexpensive housing does create a class of losers. Those of us who’ve invested in Chicago real estate couldn’t easily afford to sell and use the proceeds to move to New York or San Francisco. One might expect that there would be protests about this, but, so far, NIMBYism has mostly concerned itself with building in established neighborhoods.9 There seems to be very little effective opposition to what amounts to an inner-city “growth machine” in Chicago.

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Lima’s distinctive Metro

I visited Lima’s Metro last week. It’s a very distinctive system, for a number of reasons.10

Map, Metro and Metropolitano (BRT), Lima, Peru

Routes of the Metro and of the Metropolitano, Lima. Raw GIS data from OpenStreetMap.

[1] Lima’s Metro does not really go downtown, and it doesn’t come very close to Lima’s newer quasi-CBD in and around Miraflores and San Isidro either (see map). This is odd in that nearly all rail rapid transit systems, for reasons that are pretty clear, serve cities’ central business districts. Rail rapid transit, always expensive to build, is really only justified when there are large numbers of passengers, and, even in cities with weak CBDs,  there are still likely to be numerous jobs in government, finance, and tourism in the old downtown, and the largest passenger flows are most probably going to be to and from the CBD. Lima’s Metro comes close to the old Centro Histórico, but the nearest stations are more than two kilometers from the heart of the Centro, and this is an awkward distance to traverse. Jirón Junín, the shortest route between the Miguel Grau station and the Plaza Mayor, takes you along some blocks where (at least when I visited) there were more stray dogs than people; it’s a scary walk. There are buses along Avenida Grau that connect the station with the southern edge of the CBD, but they require an extra fare and quite a few minutes of passengers’ time, and of course you have to figure out an extraordinarily complicated bus system, largely run by private operators.

There do exist a few other Metro systems in the world that don’t go to a CBD, but they’re almost all exceptions that prove the rule. Bangkok’s Skytrain doesn’t serve the older CBD on the Chao Phraya River, but its two lines come together next to Siam Square, the effective center of Bangkok’s modern commercial life. In Miami, the Metro, as in Lima, only skirts the CBD, but it’s connected with Miami’s downtown via the Metromover. There’s also the case of San Juan’s Tren Urbano, which serves the newer commercial district Hato Rey but has never made it to the old city. This line is not generally considered to be a great success. It attracts fewer passengers than any other American rail rapid transit system except Cleveland’s,11 which also serves only the edge of downtown. Lima’s Metro arguably has the poorest connection with its main commercial districts of any rail rapid transit system in the world.

Let me add that the fact that Lima’s Metro has attracted numerous passengers without serving its CBD very well does suggest that some of the received conceptions of how people move in cities may not be quite right—this appears to be an under-researched subject. It could be the case that the “desire lines” of people of modest income in Third World cities are quite different than those of middle-income people in North America and Europe. That is, these people could have less interest in travel to the CBD, since the jobs—and products—present there may not be available to them. One of the stops on the Metro where the largest number of people get on and off is Gamarra, the site of a truly enormous clothing market and of bus and van connections to many places. It may be a more important node for relatively poor people than the Centro Histórico.

Lima_Metro_San_Borja_Sur_Av_Aviacion

Lima’s Metro, over Avenida Aviación.

[2] Lima’s Metro is entirely elevated. It’s even been claimed to be the world’s longest urban elevated railroad at 24 km (plus 10 km of surface tracks). (This claim is somewhat dubious.) Its status as an elevated railway is one of the chief reasons it does not serve the Centro Histórico. The line is nearly all built in the center of exceptionally wide streets and is very heavily engineered, in part to mitigate the area’s substantial seismic risks. Its heavy presence makes it a somewhat overbearing neighbor, and it would not have fit (or been very welcome) in the relatively narrow streets of the Centro Histórico or of places like Miraflores and San Isidro.

View from the Miguel Grau station, the closest station to the Centro Histórico.

[3] Lima’s Metro mostly serves modest neighborhoods. Many new Metro lines quite self-consciously serve a mix of districts. They do this in part to be politically attractive and to forestall accusations that their construction favors either the rich or the poor. Lima’s Metro was quite self-consciously built to serve, first, Villa El Salvador in the south, and then, when its general alignment was finally settled on, San Juan de Lurigancho in the north. Villa El Salvador and San Juan de Lurigancho are both huge settlements of (with some exceptions) poor or middle-income people. Villa El Salvador started life as a pueblo jóven (squatter settlement) and is famous for its local activists. San Juan de Lurigancho has a million people, few of whom are wealthy. “Public” transport at both ends of the lines was largely in private hands before the arrival of the Metro and mostly involved vans (“combis”) that travelled only when very full. Combi transport was (and is) neither rapid nor comfortable, and the Metro’s routing was in part determined by the very reasonable desire to improve transport for a large number of people.

The Metro does skirt the far edges of Miraflores and San Isidro, upscale residential neighborhoods and the centers of much of Lima’s modern commercial life. There are two or three stations within three or four kilometers of these neighborhoods, notably La Cultura and San Borja Sur. La Cultura, where the National Library and the Museo de la Nación (but hardly any residences) are located, is connected with San Isidro by freeway. There are bus routes to San Isidro, but the three-kilometer walk is not pleasant. I also walked from Miraflores to San Borja Sur station. The first part of this journey is fine. As in other big Latin American cities, the most bustling, pedestrian-friendly parts of Lima are upscale commercial/residential neighborhoods. But the last kilometer, past large single-family homes with three-meter-high walls topped by electric fences, is somewhat strange. The only other pedestrians were deliverymen, who were communicating with residents by intercom. The Metro does not have the same kind of easy relationship with its surrounding neighborhoods—and perhaps especially its well-off neighborhoods—that one would find in a European city. Even in the poorer neighborhoods, where there are more pedestrians, you often have to cross a major street to get to the station.

[4] The Metro took nearly thirty years to build. Construction was started in 1986, during a brief period of optimism about Peru’s future, and a small section of surface track at what is now the southern end of the line opened in 1990. Since it didn’t go anywhere very useful, it attracted few passengers. Work on the line practically ceased for twenty years, a period when Peru was experiencing out-of-control inflation, the Sendero Luminoso revolt, and other problems. Work resumed in 2009, and the southern two-thirds of the line were completed in an astonishing 18 months. The northern third, which had not even been started previously, opened 33 months later, in 2014, 28 years after Metro construction had begun.

The San Isidro Aramburú station on the Metropolitano BRT, in the middle of the Vía Expresa.

[5] The Metro has BRT competition. Besides finishing the Metro, Peru’s government took advantage of the good economic times of the early 21st century to build a bus rapid transit route, confusingly called the Metropolitano.12 Unlike the Metro, it serves the Centro Histórico, Miraflores, and San Isidro, running down the center of a freeway, the Vía Expresa, from south of the Centro Histórico to Barranco, a bit beyond Miraflores. This part of the route is genuine, high-quality BRT, resembling the major lines in Bogotá. The bus right-of-way is completely separate. It includes passing lanes, permitting express service. You pay with a smart card as you enter a station. North and south of the Vía Expresa, the Metropolitano still has its own right-of-way, and you still prepay your fare, but buses do have to contend with traffic lights. The Metropolitano has been drawing approximately as many riders as the Metro. The Metropolitano route, oddly, does not intersect with the Metro at any point.

The Gamarra station.

There seems to be a consensus that Lima’s Metro is a success. It has been attracting approximately 350,000 passengers a day on weekdays and Saturdays, more than had been predicted. This is a respectable figure for a single line in an urban area of medium density. Trains, unfortunately, run very full, but that of course is a sign of success, and surveys suggest that passengers are generally pleased. The fares, 1.50 soles (USD 0.45), cover something like two-thirds the cost of running the trains, so the subsidies required are not ruinous. Linea 1 is considered so successful that two additional lines are now under contract. Both will be subways and one will serve the Centro Histórico (the other line will reach the Airport). Linea 2 will cross Linea 1 at Miguel Grau and the Metropolitano at its Estación Central, thus improving connectivity enormously. Additional routes, including lines to Miraflores and San Isidro, are on the drawing boards. If and when these lines are completed Lima’s Metro will be much more like Latin America’s other major rail rapid transit systems.

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Walking, running, bicycling, and taking trains in central São Paulo

The São Paulo metropolitan area is by most measures the largest or second largest in the Western Hemisphere,13 but it doesn’t have a very distinct image in North America or Europe. In so far as most foreigners think of São Paulo at all, it’s often as a congested, polluted, and crime-ridden place. This image is not completely inaccurate. São Paulo’s 21 or so million people14 own more than seven million cars,15 and traffic jams are frequent. São Paulo is said, as a result, to have more helicopter commuters than any other city in the world. The urban area is surrounded by hills, and air quality can be terrible. Furthermore, the crime rate is indeed high, although it’s been dropping rapidly over the last fifteen years. In 2015 the murder rate was 8.56 per 100,000,16 among the lowest murder rates in Brazil, roughly a sixth that in Saint Louis—but twice New York’s.

Academic studies of São Paulo can also present a rather harrowing picture. Perhaps the best-known English-language work on São Paulo is anthropologist Teresa Caldera’s City of Walls,17 which depicts a city in which anyone who can has retreated to a gated community and stopped setting foot in socially-mixed public places, leaving the streets to the poor. Some of the extensive Brazilian academic literature on São Paulo also documents the city’s extreme inequalities and intractable planning dilemmas.18

Three recent trips to São Paulo suggest that this view is somewhat out of date. Central São Paulo is certainly a gritty place—graffiti are everywhere—but it has a flourishing pedestrian life, healthy public spaces, and pretty good, and improving, public transportation. In the area between, roughly, the old Centro and Itaim Bibi, streets and parks and the rail system are filled with people, apparently of all social classes, and the new ciclovias (bicycle paths) are attracting a fair number of riders.

Particularly impressive is Avenida Paulista, perhaps São Paulo’s symbolically most important street (see photo).

São Paulo--Av Paulista Sunday

Avenida Paulista on a warm Sunday afternoon in winter.

Avenida Paulista is both a business and a shopping street, and there are apartment buildings at its southeastern end. A substantial number of big companies (Citibank, for example) have their headquarters on the street, and there are several shopping malls and numerous other stores as well. It’s also where major political demonstrations take place. The sidewalks are crowded day and night and could hardly feel safer. Under the current administration of prefeito (mayor) Fernando Haddad, the street has been closed to motorized-vehicle traffic on Sundays. Closing Avenida Paulista must have felt roughly as it would feel in Chicago to close North Michigan Avenue and LaSalle Street on Sundays. The street was just jammed on the rather warm dry Sunday when I was there. There were plenty of diversions. Numerous musicians, for example, had set up shop. Hundreds of people were selling things (mostly craft products). Buskers dressed in fantastic costumes were drawing huge crowds. There were dozens of open-air restaurants, many of which were broadcasting the French/Portuguese Euro championship soccer game. There were also vendors of sorvete (ice), agua de coco (coconut water), and numerous other goodies. Children were diverting themselves using updrafts from subway grates to send light objects high in the air. But it’s possible that walking up and down and people-watching were the major activities of Avenida Paulista’s Sunday crowds—and perhaps of those on weekdays too. There may be no better place in the country to see masses of Brazilians in all their variety.

Also striking is the Minhocão [“big worm”] (see photo).

São Paulo--Minhocão curve

The Minhocão on a Sunday afternoon.

This road, officially the Via Elevada Presidente Costa e Silva, is ordinarily one of the world’s most appalling elevated urban freeways, running only a few meters from apartment buildings in a socially complicated but basically middle-class neighborhood—and said to be one of the factors in the neighborhood’s deterioration. It too has been closed to motorized traffic on Sundays, as well as at night and on late Saturday afternoons. The Minhocão was crowded when I was there, mostly with (often lightly dressed) people walking, running, or bicycling its 3.5 kilometer length. There were also a certain number of picnickers and agua de coco vendors. It’s an incredibly scenic place. You get a startlingly new view of the landscape when you walk along it. Since it has several turns and hills you also get constantly changing views of tall buildings in distant parts of the city as well as of the bustling streets below.

The city’s major inner-city park, Ibirapuera Park, is as crowded as Avenida Paulista (see photo).

São Paulo--Ibirapuera Park pathway

Ibirapuera Park walking/running/bicycling path.

The park features a walking/running/bicycling loop, numerous less formal walking paths, basketball, weightlifting, and skating facilities, and several excellent museums. While I acknowledge that I have no way of identifying the social class of people using the park, it’s pretty clear that there are people there from many social groups.

There are, in fact, substantial numbers of pedestrians in most of the middle-class and wealthy residential neighborhoods in central São Paulo. These neighborhoods are densely built-up with apartment buildings, and generally they feel safe, at least by day. But one should not be naïve here. Most high-rise apartment buildings are surrounded by tall fences and have armed guards. And there are places in the Centro such as “Cracolândia” where there are concentrations of down-and-out people on a much larger scale than anything you’d see in, say, the East End of Vancouver or the homeless peoples’ district of downtown Los Angeles. Even if one avoids the favelas (as I did) and skips Cracolândia, the visitor to São Paulo cannot help but notice that there are large numbers of marginalized or just plain poor people in the city. It’s not clear to a foreigner how much of a danger these people pose, but well-off Brazilians clearly think the danger is immense. This fact colors the use of public space in São Paulo and other Brazilian cities. American cities of course have an analogous problem.

There are also some environmental barriers to pedestrian life. Sidewalks are often cracked. There are steep hills to contend with. And, on rainy days, the sewers are overwhelmed. But you encounter these problems in parts of North America and Western Europe too. Central São Paulo is generally a pedestrian-friendly place.

Other non-automotive transportation facilities have improved too.

The Haddad administration has made a major effort to build ciclovias (bicycle paths).19 More than 400 km of paths are planned, and most of them are in place. Here’s a map:

Map, ciclovias (bicycle paths), São Paulo, Brazil

Ciclovias in São Paulo, shown by dark green lines. GIS data for ciclovias are from Vá de Bike. GIS data for streets, parks, and water are from the Geofabrik version of OpenStreetMap. The thin black lines show municipal boundaries. These were generated from a file available at GADM. I do not have data for ciclovias outside the municipality of São Paulo.

I can’t claim that most of the paths in the central city were extremely busy when I was there, but they were certainly attracting users. A newspaper story20 suggests what should have surprised no one. Well-off cyclists, mostly living in the center of the city, generally use the paths on weekends, for recreation. Relatively poor people, mostly living in the periphery, use them to get to work, and they do this every day and in substantial numbers.

A few of the paths, along water courses like the Pinheiros River, allow traffic-free movement for quite a distance, but most of the ciclovias run along urban streets. Ciclovias on major streets like Avenida Paulista and Avendida Faria Lima are designed in a way that seems a bit odd to a North American: They are built in the center of the street (see photo). This clearly solves the “dooring” problem and also assures cyclists’ visibility. It may also help at intersections, where special traffic lights for cyclists provide at least some protection from turning motor vehicles. It can be a long wait, though, for the lights to change. São Paulo’s ciclovias are not built for speedy cycling.

São Paulo--Av Paulista ciclovia on weekday

Avenida Paulista ciclovia on a weekday.

The ciclovia program has apparently aroused a huge amount of opposition. Its opponents’ chief argument is that a great deal of money is being spent on facilities that are used by only a tiny number of people. There is surely an element of truth here, and the expansion of the program has been halted for the moment.

Bicycle paths have recently been built in many other Latin American cities too, for example, Mexico City and Buenos Aires. In many ways ciclovias seem an odd fit for big Latin American cities, where traffic can be heavy and drivers have a reputation for being particularly aggressive. But, in fact, aggressive driving is far less of a problem for cyclists—and pedestrians—than in, say, Middle Eastern or South or Southeast Asian cities. Traffic lights in Latin America are usually obeyed, and sidewalks are normally free of motorized traffic, although you certainly do have to be careful at corners. The ciclovia program in São Paulo and its counterparts in other large Latin American cities seem like exceptionally worthy attempts to reduce the role of the automobile in big cities.

São Paulo’s improving—and still growing—rail transit system is surely of even greater importance than its ciclovia program. Here’s a map:

Map, urban rail lines, São Paulo, Brazil

Urban rail lines in São Paulo. Red is used for lines considered to be part of the Metro. Brown is used for lines that were historically suburban rail routes. Interchange among all the lines is free. Most data were edited from files available through the Geofabrik version of OpenStreetMap. The thin black lines represent municipal boundaries and were generated from a file available at GADM.

All the trains I rode were in good shape. São Paulo’s newest subway line, Linha 4 (the Yellow Line), with its platform doors, its open gangways between cars, its free wifi, and its ubiquitous television monitors, is particularly impressive. In appearance it’s much more like the well-funded, recently built subway lines in Asia and Europe than any other subway line in the Western Hemisphere (see photo).

São Paulo--Inside Yellow Line car

Inside a Yellow Line car.

São Paulo is also (I believe) the only large city in the Western Hemisphere that has fully integrated its old suburban lines and its subway system. Although the rail lines and the two different subway companies have retained their separate corporate identities, elaborate passageways have been built to connect the systems (see photo), and one ticket gets you just about anywhere you want to go.

São Paulo--Pinheiros interchange

The complicated interchange between Metrô line 4 and CPTM (rail) line 9.

It’s true that the old rail lines, like rail lines in most places that were built originally for long-distance transport, sometimes pass rather uselessly through declining industrial areas in the inner city, but they also serve many busy commercial areas (like Avenida Faria Lima and Avenida Luís Carlos Berrini) and of course numerous suburbs that the subway lines don’t reach. The fares—the subject of recent protests—are not strikingly low given the modest salaries for unskilled work. A subway ticket costs $R3.80 (around $US1.20), less if you pay by smart card, but it’s $R5.92 if you need to transfer to a bus. The counterargument is that the one city/one fare policy ends up being a subsidy for the mostly poor people who live in the periphery.

São Paulo’s subway system proper, with 74 route-kilometers, is still rather small given the size of the city, but it attracts more riders per kilometer of track than any other Western Hemisphere metro system, perhaps in part because of its tie-in with the suburban rail lines.21

São Paulo has, in other words, been an enthusiastic participant in the nearly worldwide movement to reduce the role of the automobile in urban life. It’s also clear that some of the negative stereotypes of life in São Paulo are at the very least exaggerated. I can’t claim to be an expert on the city, and I’m perfectly willing to admit that I don’t have much experience at all in the newer suburbs or in the periphery in general, which may well be as pedestrian-unfriendly as in most places. But the central city broadly defined—which covers quite a substantial area—seems to be quite a vibrant, reasonably walkable, and reasonably safe place that, despite the current recession, has been reducing its level of automobile dependence at least modestly in recent years.

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McDonald’s is not moving to downtown Chicago

Newspaper headlines have claimed that McDonald’s is moving its headquarters from suburban Oak Brook to “downtown Chicago.”22 It isn’t. The move (if it happens) would be to the Harpo Studios site, which is at 1058 West Washington Boulevard. This is in a neighborhood that historically mostly contained industrial buildings and warehouses. These days, the largest and most solid of these have been converted into “loft” housing. More modest industrial buildings have been replaced by expensive midrise housing—or by parking lots. Here’s a map:

mcdonalds2

The large black circle shows the location of Harpo Studios. The heavy black line shows how Chicago’s central business district is defined by the Chicago city data portal. Most observers would probably say that it is somewhat overbounded, especially on the west. The green lines are CTA rail lines, and the green circles are CTA rail stations.

Here’s a photo of Harpo Studios that gives a sense of context:

Chicago--Harpo etc 2

Harpo Studios is on the left. The reddish building contains “lofts.” The fence on the vacant lot on the right has a sign advertising three-bedroom apartments to be built on the site that will cost “in the 800s.” There are still some industrial facilities operating within a few blocks of the area shown, but they’re disappearing fast. Three or four blocks away the old food-processing Fulton Market has partly become a district of expensive, fashionable restaurants. This area is not “downtown.” It’s a mile to the Loop proper, across a ten-lane freeway and along streets that carry a huge amount of traffic during rush hour. The official community area name is Near West Side. Real estate agents call it the West Loop.

Google has set up its Chicago offices in Fulton Market, and one of the implications of the newspaper stories is that the “West Loop” might become a new center of corporate headquarters. I wonder. Google is, obviously, different. It isn’t quite comfortable with a traditional corporate image. Its New York offices are in the old Port Authority Building in Chelsea, not far from the High Line and a couple of blocks from the extremely fashionable Meatpacking District. Chicago’s Fulton Market is sometimes known as the Meatpacking District too. It’s in some ways very similar to New York’s. It had comparable historical functions, and it’s now quite the place to go (although its housing is lower-density and much cheaper than New York’s). Google appears to have chosen its office locations to enhance its (fading) bohemian image. But McDonald’s? There’s something a bit odd here.

A suburban acquaintance once revealed that he thought that “downtown Chicago” referred to the area from roughly Wrigley Field to Congress Expressway within a mile or so of the Lake, a huge, largely residential area of which the CBD is a tiny part. It’s more or less the area where driving is difficult and free parking impossible. People who drive everywhere sometimes do not seem aware of distinctions within dense areas. You could argue that the area around Harpo Studios is a suburbanite’s dream urban location. Traffic moves more freely than it does in the Loop. There are still some open parking lots around. The sidewalks are not too crowded. On nice days middle-class people can be found eating in outdoor restaurants not far away. Could it be that a misunderstanding about the meaning of “downtown” explains McDonald’s’ location decision?

Of course, it’s wonderful for Chicago to acquire new corporate headquarters, as long as only a modest bribe had to be paid. Headquarters bring in tax receipts and prestige. There are also environmental factors to consider. McDonald’s’ old headquarters in Oak Brook is very difficult to get to by public transit. Harpo Studios is two blocks from an El station. It would be hard to argue that the move is a bad thing in any way. But it does make sense to be correct about its spatial significance.

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Apartment buildings on arterials in Chicago

There has been a large amount of infill residential construction in Chicago in recent years despite the city’s static or declining population.23 Most of this building has occurred in prosperous neighborhoods on the North Side or close to downtown. “Urbanist” observers have argued that the new construction will support Chicago’s transformation into a more pedestrian-friendly and less automobile-dependent place. In this brief essay, I argue that, because much of the building has been occurring in relatively pedestrian-unfriendly areas, this hope may be misplaced. My argument is somewhat complex, in that it involves a consideration of Chicago’s zoning pattern, a look at the history of Chicago’s neighborhood commerce, and some thoughts on the meaning of “walkability.” Let me explain.

Many writers24 have pointed out that zoning laws are one of the reasons that American cities aren’t denser. That is, for example, the reason that Chicago’s multi-unit dwellings are found mostly along the Lakefront

chicago_more_than_50_percent_10_or_more_units_2

Tracts in Chicago and inner suburbs where at least fifty percent of the housing units are in buildings with ten or more housing units. Data from American Community Survey, 2008-2012.

is not only that, in a flat city that lacks natural landmarks, the Lakefront is the most attractive place to be. It’s also due to the fact that zoning prevents multi-unit buildings from being built anywhere else. Here’s a somewhat simplified map showing where multi-unit residential buildings may be built in Chicago without special permission.

zonedmultunit 2

Areas zoned RM, DR, or DX. PD areas (mostly in or near CBD) are also available for multi-unit housing, but special authorization is required. Data from Chicago’s Data portal.

Zoning codes, of course, aren’t set in stone, but they’re not easy to change. One of the reasons that multi-unit buildings in Chicago cover a larger area than is zoned for them is that much of the North Side Lakefront was downzoned during the late 1970s. It would be politically very difficult to restore the old code. Many people would like to do so, however. Blogger Daniel Kay Hertz has made of point of lamenting the difficulty of building more densely in desirable Chicago neighborhoods like Lake View and Lincoln Park, and in the nearly-as-desirable corridor stretching along Milwaukee Avenue on the Northwest Side. Large parts of these neighborhoods are mostly zoned either for single-family housing or for two-, three-, or four-flat dwellings.

In fact, there is what amounts to a major geographical loophole in the zoning codes. Many of the arterial streets in North and Northwest Side neighborhoods in Chicago are actually zoned “business” or “commercial.” Apartments over stores are permitted. In practice, so are apartment buildings as long as they’re not very tall. On this map, the red areas are zoned business or commercial:

zonedcommercial2

Areas zoned B and C on the North Side of Chicago.

Chicago (as many people have pointed out) has much more business/commercial zoning than it needs. A city in which most people shop for food at supermarkets and buy just about everything else at big-box stores and on the Internet does not need the thousands of tiny shops on arterial streets that the zoning code encourages. And, in fact, most of the commercial districts defined in the zoning code are not very healthy. Many of the storefronts on, say, Ashland, Western, and Milwaukee Avenues and Irving Park Road are closed. Others are given over to enterprises that appear to attract very little business. Some of the specialized shops are, I’ll admit, of some interest. There are exotic restaurants on Irving Park, and book and comic-book stores on Milwaukee that could not pay the rent in a more desirable commercial district. But far more common than comic-book stores are, say, auto parts stores, nail salons with few customers, and newly built suburban-style drive-in restaurants and banks. Even commoner than that are older, typically small residential buildings with no stores at all. Any ground-floor commerce that once existed has long since disappeared.

One of the reasons that these commercial districts are so marginal may be that the arterial streets are miserable places for walking. This is especially true of four-lane streets like Ashland and Western Avenues and Irving Park Road west of Ashland. They have a lot of vehicular traffic. During rush hour there are even traffic jams.

That is to say, while I don’t know exactly how to define walkability, it’s surely more complicated than the WalkScore Website metrics imply. I suspect it has a great deal to do with whether motor vehicles outnumber pedestrians. Most pedestrians are perfectly happy to walk on streets like Fifth Avenue in Midtown Manhattan and the Champs-Élysées in Paris even though there is a huge amount of traffic flowing nearby. There are just about always a huge number of pedestrians too. To walk by oneself on one of these streets at rush hour (while it’s never likely to happen) would probably feel uncomfortable. Most pedestrians, however, are happy to walk by themselves on residential streets with hardly any traffic. Again, the dynamic seems to be the ratio of vehicles to people. This is not to deny that there are other factors as well—such as the scale of buildings, the presence of high-quality sidewalks, and the existence of places to walk to. Streets like Ashland Avenue in Lake View and Lincoln Park and Irving Park Road west of Ashland are poor streets for walking because they have many more cars than pedestrians. The near absence of interesting commerce and the massive amounts of traffic reinforce each other to discourage pedestrian activity.

But, curiously, one of the places where there has been the largest amount of residential construction in Lake View and Lincoln Park (and elsewhere on the North Side) in recent years is on the arterials. This makes perfect sense in many ways. The neighborhoods are generally considered unambiguously desirable. Most of the side streets in these areas are more or less completely gentrified. Older buildings in poor shape on the side streets have for the most part already been fixed up or replaced, zoning laws in any case discourage denser infill, and there is little opportunity for new building. But, because the older buildings on the arterials have not been seen as very desirable, they have typically not been renovated, and every so often one becomes available to developers. The zoning codes do permit new apartment construction on these “commercial” streets with minimal need for a waiver. Because all these streets have reasonable bus service, there’s even a certain amount of urbanist logic in building on them, although just about all the new housing on these streets comes with plenty of parking.

I took a close look at two mile-long arterial corridors where there has been recent construction, one in Lake View and one in a nearby but still slightly marginal neighborhood.

The first corridor is Ashland Avenue between Belmont Avenue and Irving Park Road. Much of the street once looked something like this:

Chicago--Ashland Ave older buildings cropped

The neighborhood around Ashland Avenue underwent a considerable amount of gentrification during the 1980s and 1990s, but Ashland itself was somewhat neglected by developers until approximately 1996, when a Whole Foods opened toward the southern end of the corridor and Wieboldt’s, a closed department store across the street, was converted into “lofts.” In the years since, Ashland has been slowly transformed from a tired commercial and residential street into a more densely built-up mostly residential one. Nearly half the older buildings have been replaced, and the process is continuing. Here’s a map:

ashland5

On this and the similar map of part of Irving Park Road, red is used to show new, generally post-1998  construction (but some quite recent). Only buildings that front on the arterial are colored. Source of data: the building footprint file downloaded from the city of Chicago’s Data portal, modified approximately when there has been building since the dataset’s compilation.

Some of the new construction consists of buildings that are very much like the three-flat four-story condo buildings that have become the commonest kind of new building on the side streets, although they can have a store instead of a stoop and living space on the ground floor:

Chicago--Ashland single bldg 2

Most of the new buildings are somewhat larger though. The commonest type is the six- or eight-unit apartment building, like this:

Chicago--Ashland new construction and advertisement

Sometimes two or more of these are put together:

Chicago--Ashland row of apt bldgs

There are also a few much bigger (but not much taller) apartment buildings.

Chicago--Ashland apartment buildings

It’s difficult to provide a precise statistical portrait of this corridor, because it’s spread over five (formerly six) census tracts that extend a quarter mile on both sides of Ashland so that the corridor itself covers only a small portion of the tracts. Per capita income was $44,514 in 1999 ($63,253 in 2014 dollars). It rose to $68,529 in the 2010-2014 American Community Survey (which has 2009-2013 income data but reports numbers in 2014 dollars). The number of residents has also increased modestly. In 2000 the population was 11,359. In 2010/2014 it was 12,629. There is no way to be certain about where the new residents were living, but, because new buildings on the side streets were generally not much bigger than the older buildings they replaced, it seems likely that the apartment buildings on Ashland house a large portion (and maybe most) of the neighborhood’s newcomers. The percentage of workers 16 and over who took public transit to work also increased somewhat between 2000 and 2010/2014, from 38.34 to 44.91. There are two CTA rail stations within a block or two of the corridor, and I don’t doubt that some of the residents of the new buildings do take advantage of the bus lines that stop outside their door. But there are still few pedestrians on Ashland Avenue. It’s just not a nice place to walk, and, with the exception of that Whole Foods, there are few destinations to walk to.

The second corridor I looked at—Irving Park Road between Sacramento and Central Park Avenues just west of the North Branch of the Chicago River—is at an earlier stage of what may be a similar process.  Much of the street doesn’t look very different than it did in, say, the 1990s (or maybe the 1920s!):

Chicago--Irving Park mixture

More of the older buildings, however, have been replaced by suburban-style commerce. There are also a few new apartment buildings on Irving Park Road, some larger than anything on Ashland:

Chicago--Irving Park Rd new apt bldg and suburban detritus

Here’s a map:

irving2

This corridor (in the Irving Park community area) is much poorer than the Ashland corridor and has hardly been gentrified at all; very little of the old housing stock on the side streets has been replaced or seriously renovated. Per capita income in the six (now eight) tracts bordering Irving Park Road increased marginally from $16,532 in 1999 ($23,491 in 2014 dollars) to $23,798 in 2009/2013 (again, the corridor itself makes up only a small part of the tracts, which cover an area up to half a mile from Irving Park Road). Population hardly changed. It was 28,990 in 2000 and 28,444 in 2010/2014. There is no way to be certain about population change at the building level, but it seems possible that the addition of new apartment buildings reduced what would otherwise have been a greater decline in population. Public transit use also held nearly steady. The percent of the working-age population that took public transit to work rose from 20.03 to 22.04. (There are no rail stations close to this corridor.) The area’s stability applies to its ethnic mix as well. It was 55.1% Hispanic in 2000,  56.4% Hispanic in 2010/2014.

Despite the area’s lower-middle-class status, it is on the North Side; it’s pretty safe; and developers have had enough confidence to put up apartment buildings when lots on Irving Park Road have become available. The process is continuing; several new apartment projects are in the works. It’s possible that this corridor will look something like the Ashland corridor in a few years. But, in general, despite the new buildings, there is less sign of pedestrian life on Irving Park Road than in the Ashland corridor. There seems to be even more traffic, and there is nothing anything like as attractive as a Whole Foods to walk to.

Compared to, say, a freeway, or a railroad yard, or a coal-burning power plant, a four-lane urban arterial is a minor disamenity. But it is a disamenity, and its presence doesn’t just affect people living along it. It affects the surrounding neighborhoods too, since the arterials are so awkward to cross, especially on foot. (There are traffic lights only every quarter mile or so.) The city does seem to understand the problem. It’s installed green median strips along Ashland Avenue and Irving Park Road, but these help only marginally, especially since they weren’t put in at corners where a left-turn lane was wanted.

Many other North Side arterials have undergone a similar transformation. The streets appear to have been (or are being) transformed on the basis of urbanist principles, but it’s not clear that there’s been much of an urbanist effect. It’s even possible that the increase in population has generated more traffic, and hence lowered the neighborhoods’ walkability. The NIMBY argument that development = traffic may not make much sense in more pedestrian-friendly areas, but perhaps it does here.

It could certainly be argued that any kind of increased density is a good thing, but it’s still odd to have the densest housing in the least walkable parts of neighborhoods.

Chicago’s North Side is hardly the only place where this phenomenon is common. New or newish apartment buildings on urban arterials can be found all over the United States. They were apparently built in many cases for the same reasons as in Chicago: the availability of land; the absence of protesting neighbors; and oddities of the zoning code. I can’t resist adding that there is a precedent in Chicago, which appears to be the only city in Western world whose most prestigious housing overlooks what is for all intents and purposes a freeway, that is, Lake Shore Drive.

It’s hard to see what one could do about the problem except to downsize the arterials radically. If it were up to me, that’s certainly what would happen. The Chicago Transit Authority does in fact have a plan to put bus rapid transit on Ashland and Western Avenues, which would mean eliminating a lane of traffic and forbidding most left turns. The fact, however, that this plan has elicited an enormous amount of opposition has put it on hold. Automobile drivers do not easily give up the right to degrade an environment. Radical downsizing of the arterials doesn’t seem likely to happen soon. Until it does, streets like Ashland and Western Avenues and Irving Park Road present an enormous long-term obstacle to transforming the North Side of Chicago into a more pedestrian-friendly place even if they are acquiring new multi-unit housing.

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Neighborhood types in Chicago, 2010

The maps below present a classification of Chicago’s residential census tracts based on multivariate analysis. This approach (sometimes called social area analysis or factorial ecology in geography and sociology) is often used to classify small areas in cities. The ten neighborhood types identified on the maps were derived through a two-step process. First, the TRYSYS program was used to factor 34 important tract-level census variables by the Tryon “key-cluster analysis” method. The data come either from the 2010 census or from the 2008-2012 American Community Survey. Three oblique dimensions were identified. Then each tract was scored on the three dimensions (using a simple sum of standardized scores), and tracts were cluster-analyzed using TRYSYS‘s iterative partitioning method. Robert B. Dean did the statistical analysis.

These maps are comparable to those generated for 1990 and 2000 data when I was working at the University of Chicago Library. Essentially the same variables were used, and nearly the same geographic area was covered. The three dimensions (or clusters) are very similar to the first three dimensions found in the 1990 and 2000 data (although the order of the first two is different). In both 1990 and 2000, a fourth dimension was identified, associated with family type and age. A similar dimension in the 2010 data is not at all significant, and, in conjunction with this, the geographical pattern of neighborhood types has changed in some small ways. For example, the well-off/young-adult/non-family area roughly along North Halsted Street that was identified in the 2000 census analysis has vanished in 2010, mostly subsumed into areas classed as very well-off and very urban (type 1). But, in general, the broad pattern of Chicago’s social geography appears to have changed only in subtle ways in the first decade of the 21st century. The area of gentrification on the North Side has clearly moved west and north from Wicker Park and Bucktown, into Ukrainian Village, Logan Square, and even Humboldt Park. Gentrification has also moved west from downtown. Click here for some maps that demonstrate that there was a considerable amount of ethnic-specific internal migration in the area. Note that, because the classifications have changed, the color schemes of the 1990, 2000, and 2010 neighborhood-type maps, while similar, are not completely comparable.

No claim can be made that this is a definitive analysis of neighborhood types in Chicago. It is in the nature of this kind of analysis that a change in the variables selected or in the parameters set by the analyst can change the results significantly. There is also the issue that the 2008-2012 ACS data are not likely to be as reliable as earlier long-form data. The best that can be said is that the maps may provide one useful way of analyzing the differences in Chicago’s residential areas.

Here is a map showing neighborhood types in Chicago and its inner suburbs. Nominal scale is 1:250,000. (Click here for key.)

Map showing result of cluster analysis of circa 2010 data for Chicago's census tracts that resulted in classification into ten neighborhood types, Chicago and vicinity, Illinois

 

Here is a map showing neighborhood types in the Chicago region. Nominal scale is 1:700,000. (Click here for key.)

Map showing result of cluster analysis of circa 2010 data for Chicago's census tracts that resulted in classification into ten neighborhood types, Chicago region, Illinois and surrounding states

 

 

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The extreme high density of the central portions of the New York area

Sprawl supporters like Wendell Cox and Robert Bruegmann25 (and many other writers) have gleefully pointed out the Census Bureau’s somewhat counterintuitive claim that the Los Angeles urban area is denser than New York’s. Anyone familiar with Los Angeles and New York would understand that the explanation for this must lie mostly in the different characters of the outlying portions of the two urban areas. New York (like other eastern cities) includes a large number of suburban areas with two-or-more-acre zoning. Such low-density suburbs are almost impossible in western cities, where rough terrain and government ownership of much of the mountainous land have discouraged their formation.

One way of demonstrating the extraordinary density of New York’s central portions that I haven’t seen pointed out requires looking at 2010 population density by census tract for all 73,000-odd U.S. census tracts (data from NHGIS). The densest tract, with 196,409 people per square kilometer (508,697 people per square mile), turns out to be in Chicago: a tract created especially for the 2010 census that contains a single apartment building, at 5415 North Sheridan Road. 163 out of the next densest 166 tracts, however, are in the New York area (all but one in New York, N.Y.; the three non-New-York tracts are in San Francisco). New York’s overwhelming dominance extends down the density hierarchy. Out of the 436 census tracts in the United States with population densities of more than 30,000 people per square kilometer (77,700 per square mile), 409 are in the New York area (401 in New York City). Of the remaining 27, 12 are in the San Francisco Bay Area (11 in San Francisco), 6 in Los Angeles County, 5 in Chicago, 3 in Honolulu, and 1 in Baltimore. Of the 967 tracts with more than 20,000 persons per square kilometer (51,800 people per square mile), 867 are in the New York area (842 in New York City). (The runners-up are: Los Angeles County 29, Cook County (almost all in Chicago) 24, San Francisco Bay Area 22, Honolulu 7, Philadelphia 6, Washington area 5.)

Here are choropleth maps of the New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and (just for fun) Toronto areas, all at the same scale, showing persons per square kilometer in 2010 (2011 in Toronto) with the same class intervals and colors. Note how different New York looks. There are, for example, hardly any signs of “population densities as high as [in] Manhattan” that some scholars26 have claimed for Los Angeles. All of these metropolitan areas are radically underbounded, but outlying areas (even in Los Angeles) never get beyond moderate densities.

new_york_denschicago_densla_denssf_dens_1toronto-dens-clegend2

This observation jibes completely with the Census Bureau’s recent creation of a “population-weighted density” statistic for urban areas, in which the New York area ends up being considerably denser than any other American urban region. New York has 31,251 “population-weighted” persons per square mile, San Francisco 12,145, Los Angeles 12,113, and Chicago 8,613and these figures include the suburbs.

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Expedition to Kenosha

Kenosha--Streetcar

I had lived in Chicago for thirty years, and I like trains, but I’d never gone and taken a look at the Chicago area’s only streetcar line, in Kenosha, Wisconsin. So I set out one Sunday afternoon on Chicago’s suburban railroad system, Metra, to visit Kenosha. It was a pretty easy hour-and-forty-minute trip, past familiar cityscape for a while, then along a bicycle trail through well-off suburbs, and finally (and much more speedily) through increasingly open country. Kenosha may in some senses be a suburb of Chicago, but there is plenty of unbuilt-on land close to the state border.

The Kenosha streetcar runs for a mile or so between the Metra station and the Lakefront. Its complete route is a loop, said to be two miles long in all.

Kenosha streetcar, Metra, pedestrian facilities, Kenosha, Wisconsin

Map of central Kenosha showing the routes of the streetcar line and of Metra trains to Chicago. GIS data from Geofabrik version of OpenStreetMap.

Its development was justified on the grounds that the line would serve the inhabitants of Harbor Park, a relatively new townhouse condo development on the Lakefront. The Kenosha streetcar seems to have been an abysmal failure at attracting Harbor Park customers though. The current schedule—7.5 hours a day starting at 10 or 11 for most of the year but on weekends only in winter—would not allow commuters to use it. To get to the Loop by 9 you’d have to take a train at 7:13 or earlier, and the first train from the Loop after 5 wouldn’t get you home until 6:38 or later. Clearly the streetcar line has become essentially a tourist attraction and a modest one at that. The latest figures (2014) from the American Public Transit Association (APTA) suggest that there are 45,054 passengers/year, or maybe 140/day (and you wonder how Kenosha Transit counts people who buy a day pass; if you make several round trips on a day pass, does each one-way ride count as an unlinked trip?). When I was there only one PCC car was running. It was taking about ten minutes to complete a loop, that is, making maybe 45 round trips, or ninety one-way trips/day. That means that there were something like 1.5 passengers per trip. Actually, I was struck by the complete absence of passengers on the Sunday afternoon I visited. There were, however, people out photographing the nicely repainted PCC cars, of which Kenosha Transit has acquired six. To someone who likes trains, it’s quite appealing to see these PCC cars running in a small city. It’s not clear that the cars have much to do with urban transit, however.

The Metra trains, interestingly, were just jammed, especially the late afternoon train back from Kenosha to Chicago. There were standees between Ravinia Park and Ravenswood. But the train wasn’t just serving people attending a Ravinia event. People got on and off at every one of the 27 stops. Perhaps there should be more than nine trains a day on Sunday! It was certainly interesting to contrast a transit service that is filling a real need with one that seems to be serving mostly an aesthetic one. The Kenosha streetcar is, admittedly, probably bringing in some tourist dollars, perhaps enough to justify the $6.37 subsidy per passenger trip (but note that, according to APTA, Metra’s tickets—almost always for a much longer journey—are subsidized at only $4.93/ride).

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Delhi Metro

Delhi has added more rail transit in the 21st century than any other city outside of East Asia. Although the first line did not open until 2002, there are now 190 route kilometers and 2.4 million riders a day. Among North American rail transit lines, only the New York subway is longer and carries more passengers. And the Delhi subway is still growing. Phase III, now being constructed, will add 160 route kilometers. In a few years Delhi will have one of the world’s largest rail transit systems. Delhi Metro is generally considered an enormous success, not least because the lines were apparently built efficiently, with a minimum of corruption, in a country where this is not the norm.

I’ve been on the Delhi Metro twice, on an earlier trip in 2007 and just recently. There are all sorts of tremendously impressive things about the system. The underground stations and the trains are air-conditioned—a fairly important accomplishment given that temperatures in Delhi were well over 100 degrees every day I was there. The stations are quite spacious and subtly lit (they remind me of stations on the Washington Metro). The trains are very much of the modern type. You can walk from car to car. It is true that there are plenty of reminders that you’re in India. The trains can get awfully crowded (except for the women’s car). And passengers getting on seem incapable of waiting for passengers to get off, and there is thus lots of pushing and shoving. Also, it’s a bit unnerving that you have to get your luggage x-rayed and undergo a body search to enter a station (on one day I had to take out every object from a crowded backpack for a zealous guard). Furthermore, there are frequent announcements warning passengers against picking up unattended objects since they could be bombs. Still, who could argue with the proposition that Delhi Metro is a major achievement?

I have one pretty major caveat, however. It’s that it’s practically impossible to walk to the Metro stations, at least in central Delhi.

When I first rode the Delhi Metro in 2007, I decided to follow the elevated line that emerges a few blocks west of Connaught Circle, to take pictures and to get a feel for how the line fit into the neighborhoods it passed through. I gave up after a couple of stations. One problem is the near absence of sidewalks along the route (see below). In most cases a sidewalk had once been built, but it’s been encroached on in places and has not been maintained in others, so that there is more trash-filled pothole than sidewalk. Most Indians just walk in the traffic lane. Even more serious, you take your life in your hands every time you want to cross a street. There are few traffic lights, and little attention is paid to those that exist. Some Indian intellectuals say they hate the anthropologist Louis Dumont’s phrase “homo hierarchicus,” an attempt to characterize the Indian people in light of the caste system. But there is no doubt that there is a hierarchy on Indian roads. Third World traffic rules are in force everywhere. The larger vehicle has the right of way, and pedestrians have no rights at all. Even though automobile ownership is not that high, Delhi is one of the most pedestrian-unfriendly cities in the world—especially British-planned New Delhi with its innumerable roundabouts. You end up wondering just how people get to the Metro stations (or anywhere else). A surprising number take auto or bicycle rickshaws short distances just to avoid having to walk. There may be fewer pedestrians in central Delhi than in any other large city anywhere. There are many fewer pedestrians in the blocks around around Connaught Circle than in, say, downtown Los Angeles, which is famous in North America for being a car-oriented place. In downtown Los Angeles paved sidewalks are universal, and you can cross streets safely.

Delhi--MetroOverStreet2

I visited Gurgaon on my last trip to Delhi. Gurgaon is Delhi’s Rosslyn or Schaumburg or La Défense. Many successful firms have built high-rise office buildings in Gurgaon. There’s also a huge amount of middle- and upper-class housing. A new elevated Metro line to one of Gurgaon’s major office complexes just opened a couple of months ago. It connects to a branch of the Metro that opened approximately a year ago. Both lines were jammed despite the fact that service is frequent, and I had to stand all the way back to central Delhi. But even in shiny-new Gurgaon it’s painful to get to the stations. There are numerous pedestrians in Gurgaon’s office district—and almost no provision made for them. You often have to walk in moving traffic or across muddy fields to get where you’re going (see below).

Delhi--Gurgaon pedestrians

Some Indians attribute the pedestrian-unfriendliness of Indian cities to cultural factors other than the caste system. It is certainly true that Indians on the whole are probably less interested in fitness than just about any of the world’s peoples. You almost never see runners or recreational bicyclists in Indian residential districts. Still, there are plenty of middle-class Indians who enjoy walking. Small parks all over urban India have de facto tracks where people walk in circles. I spent a couple of hours on my last trip to Delhi in Lodi Garden, a wonderful park in New Delhi that contains several enormous centuries-old tombs; lots of large trees (and therefore shade); and thousands of noisy birds. It may be the most pleasant place in Delhi. And it’s just big enough to contain an approximately one-mile walking loop. Amazingly, there were a very large number of people there making the circuit, including some women (see below). It’s true that the park also has a substantial population of unowned dogs, but they do seem to let people pretty much alone (although they can bark furiously at owned dogs being walked on leashes). Clearly, some Indians would walk to Metro stations if it were easier to do so.

Delhi--Lodi Garden3

Delhi of course is hardly the only Third World city where pedestrians are treated with contempt. But, unlike its close competitors in this area (Jakarta and Hanoi, for example), it has made a substantial investment in a form of transport that appears to function fully only when pedestrian access is possible. It’s true that, even as it is, Delhi’s subway is working for millions of people. But a sympathetic foreigner can’t help but wonder whether it wouldn’t be even more of a success if something were done about making it less of an ordeal to walk to the stations. I acknowledge that it would not be a trivial matter to change India’s driving culture—or its long-standing indifference to keeping sidewalks clear.

–May 2014

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