Chicago gets a “slow street,” sort of

Overcrowded sidewalks—a bad idea in a time of social distancing—have led many American cities to start a “slow streets” program, in which pedestrians and cyclists are encouraged to use the roadways of certain streets. Chicago came to this movement rather late, but the city’s Department of Transportation finally designated a small number of streets to be “shared streets” late last week. The first of these streets, Leland Avenue between Lincoln Avenue and Clark Street (a distance of just under a mile), opened on Monday, June 1, and I went and walked both ways along the street on four successive days this week.

It’s important to understand that this segment of Leland Avenue (like most of the other designated shared streets) is a lightly used residential street. There is a stop sign at every corner, except where the street crosses Ashland Avenue, where there’s a traffic light. There are speed bumps in the middle of certain blocks. Westbound traffic is forbidden east of Damen Avenue. No driver would use this street to get anywhere fast. Because of the low traffic volume, it’s a pleasant street to walk along, and I’ve frequently found myself using Leland when I’ve wanted to walk between the Lakefront and the Lincoln Square area. Many cyclists use the street as well. During the nearly three months of the Coronavirus Pandemic, I’ve noticed quite a few people walking in Leland’s roadway, since there are enough pedestrians on the narrow sidewalks so that social distancing is otherwise difficult. When I went to take some photos for an earlier post, I made a point of walking along Leland hoping to be able to take a picture of pedestrians in the roadway, and I succeeded.

I’m sorry to report that I couldn’t help but observe while visiting Leland Avenue these last four days that there were actually fewer people walking or cycling in the roadway than there had been a couple of weeks ago, before Leland’s official designation as a shared street. Perhaps the hours I was there—afternoons on weekdays—were ill-chosen. It was quite hot one day, and it’s likely that some people who were working from home or unemployed in May are now back in their usual workplace. Whatever the reason, pedestrians this week were mostly sticking to sidewalks. Most of the time, I was the only pedestrian in sight walking on Leland Avenue itself, and I had to hang around quite a while to take photos of the roadway that included pedestrians or cyclists. Perhaps this isn’t an altogether bad thing. No pedestrian or cyclist would have had any trouble social-distancing on Leland Avenue when I was there.

Shared street, Leland Avenue, Chicago, Illinois.

One factor may be that, early in the week, there was more traffic than usual, including quite a number of delivery trucks. The latter may have been making up for the fact that deliveries were interrupted as a result of the threat of demonstrations (and, unfortunately, looting) on the previous days. Most drivers were, I’m glad to say, moving pretty slowly, but one automobile driver seemed to think that a speed of thirty or forty miles an hour was okay. I’ve observed over the years that drivers sometimes react to what they perceive as a threat to automobile hegemony by behaving with an increased level of aggressiveness. I don’t know whether that was true in this case, but I wouldn’t in any case say that Leland Avenue seemed like a completely safe place for pedestrians.

Perhaps one issue is the signage. Most blocks just had a “Road closed local traffic only” sign (and someone had rotated this sign at the Lincoln Avenue end of Leland so that most drivers wouldn’t see it).

"Road closed local traffic only" sign, Leland Avenue, Chicago, Illinois.

Other blocks had a much smaller “Slow down shared street” sign that I suspect would not have been legible to most drivers at all.

"Slow down shared street" sign, Leland Avenue, Chicago, Illinois.

The signs were, I’m guessing, what was readily available to staff at the Chicago Department of Transportation. The “Slow down” sign may have been left over from the city’s experiment on Argyle Street between Broadway and Sheridan Road, where it attempted to create a woonerf, eliminating curbs and repaving both street and sidewalk with the same kind of bricks. The result was a certain level of befuddlement on the part of both drivers and pedestrians who continued keeping to their traditional zones, as they were mostly doing on Leland when I visited.

I certainly hope that pedestrian usage of the street picks up and that Chicago’s version of “slow streets” ends up being a success. If there were more pedestrians and cyclists on the street, the problem of aggressive driving would surely vanish instantly. But what I’ve seen these last few days did confirm a sense that I’ve had for a while that, in the United States, pedestrians (and even many cyclists) just don’t feel comfortable using roads that allow motor vehicles, even when people on foot (or on a bicycle) theoretically have the right of way. I’m not convinced that a shared street in the U.S. is even possible.

Note added 21 October 2020. The Leland shared street was extended west to Virginia Avenue in late June and east to Kenmore Avenue this month; there’s still a somewhat awkward break between Lincoln and Western Avenues. The shared portion now runs approximately 2.25 miles (3.6 km) in all. Its western terminus is close to the southern end of the North Shore Channel Trail, and its eastern terminus isn’t too far from the Lakefront. Leland has thus become the gentlest way to get between these two important pedestrian and cyclist destinations.

I’ve been on both new sections several times. Like the original shared street between Clark Street and Lincoln Avenue, the added segments, while perfectly pleasant, were not very busy when I was there. I was often the only pedestrian for several blocks in both directions (there were plenty of pedestrians on the sidewalks though). And Leland does still carry traffic, including some vehicles being driven at substantial speeds despite all the barrels. I remain a little more skeptical about Chicago’s shared streets than some folks are. 

Note added 7 December 2020. All of Chicago’s shared streets, including the one on Leland Avenue, were dismantled around December 1. The Chicago Department of Transportation argues (quite reasonably) that it cannot keep streets free of snow if the right-of-way is blocked by sign stanchions and traffic barrels.

Note added 30 May 2021. The Leland Avenue shared street was reestablished during the week of May 24 (but only east of Lincoln Avenue). There is one new feature: a 5 mph speed limit, noted on new, highly visible signs in every block. I walked up and down the street several times this week and can attest that, while few drivers were driving as slowly as 5 mph, no one was driving at 40 mph either—that’s basically good news. Just as was the case last year, hardly any pedestrians were using the roadway; there were a few cyclists taking advantage of the implicit permission to go the wrong way on the one-way portions of Leland. 

Note added 10 September 2021. The Leland shared street was completely dismantled soon after Labor Day. CDOT argued that there were not enough users to justify its continuance.

 

Posted in Transportation, Urban | 2 Comments

The resilience of commercial streets in walkable urban neighborhoods

It’s been suggested that the Coronavirus Pandemic will turn out to be a disaster for stores on commercial streets in walkable neighborhoods. Most of these stores have had to close or at least to limit their operations during a lockdown that’s now been in force for ten or eleven weeks. Bustling commercial streets are a critical component of what these neighborhoods have to offer residents, so the implication is that the surrounding neighborhoods will be in trouble too.

Those who make this argument could well turn out to be right, but I’m inclined to point out that many of these streets have shown a surprising resilience over the last few decades. They are excellent examples of capitalism’s creative destruction at work. All of the commercial streets with which I’ve been familiar over several years have experienced a constant churn in their retail landscape as conditions have changed.

Broadway in Lake View between Diversey Parkway and Addison Street is the pedestrian-oriented Chicago street that I’ve come to know best. I moved to Aldine Avenue just off Broadway in 1984 and have often found myself on this part of Broadway even after moving a mile and a quarter north in 1996. Most of the stores that were on the street in 1984 have vanished, as consumer preferences and technology have changed. Back then, there were, for example, three fruit-and-vegetable stores on Broadway within a couple of blocks of Aldine. But they just couldn’t compete with nearby supermarkets, and they all disappeared within a couple of years. A kosher butcher and a Jewish delicatessen closed a few years later. I doubt whether the neighborhood became less Jewish, but newcomers with a Jewish heritage presumably had less and less interest in specialized shops (or maybe meat!). Another example: In 1984, video stores were still growing like crazy. Most of them closed twenty years later. They couldn’t compete with Redbox or mailed disks from Netflix. The last video stores vanished a few years later when Netflix’s streaming site came up. Similarly, Dominick’s and Treasure Island, two of Chicago’s major supermarkets, both with outlets on Broadway, went bankrupt and closed when Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s and Walmart arrived in town.1

But here’s what’s important: Closed stores have almost always been replaced by others. Smaller shops have sometimes been taken over by ambitious newcomers, often bringing new types of commerce to the street. A physical therapy facility, a gym, an urgent care complex, a vape shop, a children’s play center, and a (short-lived) outlet for home bakers have been added to the street in the last decade and a half. Dozens of restaurants and bars have opened (while many others closed).2 Outlets of national chains have gone through a comparable turnover. After Borders went bankrupt in 2011, the small Walgreens across the street from the Broadway Borders took over the bookstore’s much larger space and claimed to be the largest Walgreens in Chicago. (It closed last year, perhaps because there didn’t need to be three Walgreens within a quarter-mile of each other.) The somewhat old-fashioned one-story Dominick’s supermarket was replaced by a new, multi-story Mariano’s, a much more modern establishment, in a massive building that includes a Starbucks, a PNC Bank, an XSport Fitness, and a large dental office. There has also been some pressure to add residential space to the street, even though the area’s zoning classification makes this difficult. Still, two four-story apartment buildings with ground-floor retail have replaced one-story structures, and the closed Treasure Island supermarket is in the process of being replaced by a mid-rise apartment building, also with ground-floor retail.

Even the few stores that survive from 1984 have undergone changes. The Broadway outlet of Chicago’s most widespread supermarket, Jewel-Osco, went through a complete renovation perhaps a decade and a half ago. Unabridged Books, an excellent independent bookstore, and Windy City Sweets, a first-rate candy shop across the street, were also renovated (and Unabridged expanded) maybe twenty years ago. It’s possible that I’ve missed a shop or two, but I believe that only a couple of dry cleaners, a coin laundromat, an old-fashioned True Value Hardware, an even more old-fashioned shoe-repair shop, and two parking facilities3 have remained largely as they were.

My sense is that numerous other commercial streets in walkable neighborhoods in the United States have undergone similar shifts over the years. This is certainly true in Chicago, where, for example, streets like Southport Avenue between School and Grace and Milwaukee Avenue between Ashland and Damen have experienced the same kind of retail churn as Broadway. Perhaps as a result, both are arguably far more bustling and healthy today than they were in the 1980s. All these successful streets are in neighborhoods with a moderately high population density. Residents of these neighborhoods are on average reasonably prosperous and highly educated and include a substantial proportion of young or youngish adults. It also seems likely (but is completely unprovable) that, in the complicated process through which people end up living where they do, these neighborhoods acquired a high proportion of residents who were comfortable in a place where many tasks are best accomplished by walking, something that’s not a given for Americans.4 As a result, shops on these streets have had plenty of potential customers at hand, as long as they continued to offer services and products that were actually wanted.

I’m certainly ready to concede that some urban streets with retail shops haven’t done nearly as well (Chicago is full of examples5). I also acknowledge the pain that retail churn causes to those who put their savings into a shop that doesn’t succeed, and, like most urban residents, I’ve sometimes found myself mourning the loss of a favorite establishment.  It would be absurd to argue that the operative principal—that the organization willing to pay the most gets to operate a storefront—leads to the best results for customers. This kind of problem, however, is endemic to a free-market economy, and it’s a little hard to see how it could have been avoided.

Note that one of the characteristics even of the successful streets is that they’ve had fairly regular ups and downs. On Broadway, for example, there were dozens of vacant stores during the period of the Great Recession. As the Recession receded, closed stores got rented, but the process wasn’t speedy.

There have also been quite a few vacant stores on the street over the last two or three years despite the fact that the area has been prospering.6 The consensus is that competition from Internet commerce is at fault. This is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis. Among the sites that have been vacant longest are those where a video store, a used bookstore, and a local bank branch were once located.

The Coronavirus Pandemic has added a new factor into the mix. Social distancing and government-mandated closures during the Pandemic couldn’t possibly be good for busy urban commercial streets. These measures have been particularly hard, of course, on restaurants, coffee shops, and bars, which have been almost immune to competition from online retailing. During the Pandemic, every one of these establishments has had either to close completely or else to convert to providing takeout only. Some seem to be doing a good takeout business, but their owners quite reasonably argue that this doesn’t bring in enough revenue to pay the rent.

There is, obviously, no way to predict what will happen to Broadway and comparable streets if and when Covid-19 recedes. Some people are quite pessimistic, arguing that the Pandemic has undermined the case for urban living in general. It’s hard to argue with the general proposition that density makes the spread of disease easier. Not only do residents of cities more or less by definition live in closer proximity to strangers than people in low-density areas do. They are also more likely to ride in elevators, pass through building lobbies, and hop on buses, in other words to engage in activities that have suddenly come to seem quite dangerous. Could the Pandemic end up causing a new wave of migration to the suburbs? It’s possible. But some people made a similar prediction after 9/11, which also exposed urban vulnerability. 9/11 was followed by nearly twenty years during which the demand for residential space in most of America’s largest and densest cities was more pressing than it had been for decades.

The past resilience of certain commercial streets in cities at least suggests the possibility that they will continue to be busy and successful places.

Note added 8 January 2021. Nearly ten months into the Pandemic, the stretch of Broadway described above seems as bustling as ever (although I can’t prove this with solid statistics), but there are certainly signs that its commerce has been disrupted. Last June (as noted in footnote 6 below), 29 out of the 203 storefronts on Broadway between Addison Street and Diversey Parkway were unoccupied. This morning, 46 storefronts were vacant, and that figure is probably too low, since several establishments I counted as open are clearly in trouble. One restaurant, for example, had a sign in the window announcing a “temporary closure.” Several others have limited hours and only minimal availability of take-out food. The obvious problem is that restaurants, as well as bars and coffee shops, are now enduring a second period when indoor service is forbidden. Even if the city had imposed no such rule, it’s possible that not many people these days would have wanted to risk eating in a crowded indoor space. Only a few of these establishments have outdoor seating, and, while some of these have added protection to their few outdoor seats, outdoor dining and drinking in Chicago in midwinter remains a hard sell.

There is also some good news about the stretch of Broadway with which I’m concerned. Several new stores have appeared in recent months despite the pandemic. A dance studio, a couple of restaurants, and pop-up stores for Halloween and Christmas have opened, and signs in windows promise additional new shops.

Furthermore, restaurants on the southern half of the street arranged a nearly complete closure of Broadway between Belmont Avenue and Surf Street on several weekends last summer and fall and filled much of the roadway with seats, leaving a substantial walking path. Most seemed to be doing good business. “Dining on Broadway” (as the event was called) clearly brought in visitors from far and wide. But these street closures, which required hiring extra security personnel and renting, installing, and uninstalling special furniture, were apparently expensive to organize, and I don’t know whether they were a financial success.

Closer to the Loop in Chicago, there have been several long-term Pandemic-era street closures that permit restaurants to spread out in the street more or less permanently, which presumably reduces costs by quite a lot. This kind of thing is, of course, pretty common in Western Europe and might be appropriate for Broadway as well. There are certainly enough pedestrians to guarantee that the street would be a congenial and safe place, and there are alternate parallel streets for traffic. The closures last summer and fall provided for easy automobile access to Mariano’s supermarket, and so could a long-term closure. But a street closure of nearly half a mile would require a rethinking of urban land use that, I suspect, would be difficult to pull off in Chicago.   

Note added 28 September 2023. Broadway seems to be doing all right these days—it’s a bustling place. But there are still quite a number of vacant storefronts. I counted 26 yesterday. That’s out of approximately 206 storefronts in the mile-long corridor I talk about above. This number includes a somewhat arbitrary three vacant storefronts in the apartment building that replaced the closed Treasure Island supermarket maybe a year and half ago; they’ve never been rented. (As the sign on the window says, this block of empty storefronts could be subdivided in any number of ways.)

26 vacant storefronts suggest progress. There were 46 vacant storefronts in January 2021, when vaccination was just getting underway, and 29 in June 2020, when the Pandemic was not far from its height (see the text above and footnote 6). The closed storefronts include the substantial Walmart “neighborhood market” north of Diversey, closed this past year along with several other Chicago Walmart outlets in part (it’s widely believed) because theft was such a problem. Walmart’s neighbor, once a large Walgreen’s, remains closed. An H&R Block next door and a Gap north of Belmont Avenue have also closed over the last year. Are national retailers losing their interest in urban commercial streets? Many (and probably most) of the new stores on Broadway—largely restaurants—seem, in fact, to be locally owned.

Developments over the last couple of years suggest a continuation of the churn that has characterized this stretch of Broadway (and other urban commercial streets) for the last several decades. 

  1. There’s a Walmart’s “neighborhood market” on Broadway just north of Diversey. Trader Joe’s has an outlet on Diversey just west of Broadway. And there’s a Whole Foods on Halsted Street just north of Addison a block west of Broadway.
  2. Places selling prepared food make up a plurality of retail establishments on the street. I counted 203 separate storefronts on this part of Broadway on the morning of June 2 of which 58 were restaurants, coffee shops, or bars.
  3. One of which was closed and torn down a month after I put up this post.
  4. Chicago also has several successful “ethnic” commercial streets, for example, Wentworth Avenue in Chinatown and Devon Avenue between roughly Western and California Avenues. The social dynamics of these neighborhoods are clearly different from the social dynamics of the middle-class, somewhat “hip” neighborhoods. Wentworth Avenue caters both to the relatively poor residents of Chinatown and to better-off tourists. The neighborhood around Devon Avenue’s bustling South-Asia-themed commercial strip is only a little more South Asian than other parts of the Far North Side. The street serves people from a wide area. Both streets have shown a fair amount of retail churn over the years.
  5. Chicago’s zoning has theoretically been modernized, but some of the zoning classifications still have their roots in the era when people mostly got around by streetcar. Thus, many arterial streets are zoned for street-front retailing but lack the pedestrian traffic to support healthy stores. Denser housing has been put on many of these streets over the last couple of decades, but I’m skeptical that it will make much difference. See this earlier post.
  6. On the morning of June 2, 29 of the 203 storefronts on Broadway between Diversey and Addison were vacant.
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Another book “superstore” closes

Barnes and Noble, State and Elm Streets, Chicago, Illinois, closure notice

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was a little shocked to discover in the course of a walk further south than I’d been for two months that the Barnes & Noble at State and Elm Streets on the Near North Side of Chicago had closed permanently. I shouldn’t have been surprised. The owner of the land on which this Barnes & Noble sits had been trying for more than a year to get permission to erect a large apartment building on the site. The matter was on hold for the moment since the inhabitants of the tall apartment buildings across both State and Elm Streets were vehemently opposed, and the area’s alderman had rejected the owner’s application twice as a consequence. But these sorts of conflicts typically conclude with an agreement to put up a smaller building, and there was no reason to think that this one would end differently. The Barnes & Noble at State and Elm had been living on borrowed time for a year. Still, I was both disturbed and sad to see it vanish.

I know that large chain bookstores haven’t always been widely appreciated, and I certainly acknowledge that independent bookstores often make a more distinctive contribution to a city’s intellectual life. I’m much more likely to find something extraordinarily interesting in the main display area of certain independent bookstores than among the corporation-determined books put out in the front section of a Barnes & Noble.

But the size and impersonality of large chain bookstores provide some advantages too. These stores invariably have more items in stock than all but a few independent bookstores. And many people (including me) feel much less self-conscious spending a long time browsing and skimming at a big chain bookstore than in a small one where the owner is a few feet away. Big bookstores also usually provide bathrooms, which are a substantial asset to people (again like me) who enjoy urban walking. And many people also value these stores’ cafés, which are apparently a profit center for them. The disappearance of large chain bookstores from cities removes a welcoming Third Space from the urban landscape. It also makes it a lot harder actually to take a look at new books and magazines.

It needs to be said though that the era of the urban book “superstore” hasn’t been all that long. Barnes & Noble and Borders only started expanding wildly in the 1990s. Borders went bankrupt in 2011, and Barnes & Noble has been downsizing for at least a decade. It had already closed several stores in the Chicago area and even more elsewhere in the United States.1  It apparently isn’t easy these days to earn enough money from sales to pay the rent required to keep a large bookstore open, especially in expensive parts of cities.2 I’m sure there must be a substantial business literature questioning whether the book “superstore” was ever a good idea. Does a huge store that encourages browsing on a large scale make sense in a world in which businesses are expected to measure their profitability by the square foot? But it appears to be online selling that undermined the value of this model most thoroughly. Competition from Amazon (and from Barnes & Noble’s own online bookstore) made profitable retail operation increasingly difficult. In the case of the Barnes & Noble at State and Elm, local real estate ambitions and the Coronavirus Pandemic, which has now forced bookstores to keep their retail shops closed for ten weeks, were the immediate causes of its shutting down, but its closure is definitely part of a larger trend.

For people like me, who have always appreciated large urban chain bookstores, the end of the era when they were common seems quite unfortunate.

Note added 28 March 2023. I’ve just learned that the Clybourn Avenue Barnes & Noble closed permanently earlier this month. There are no longer any full-service Barnes & Noble stores in Chicago.

Note added 28 February 2024. Barnes & Noble has announced that it will be opening two new branches this spring or summer in what are perhaps the two most pedestrian-friendly neighborhoods in Chicago: at the Milwaukee/North/Damen intersection in Wicker Park and near Clark and Diversey on the Lincoln Park/Lake View border (right next to one of its old locations). This is wonderful news. 

  1. For example, the Barnes & Noble store on the Santa Monica Promenade closed in 2017. There are apparently no more Barnes & Nobles in the walkable parts of the Los Angeles area.
  2. The remaining non-university-affiliated Barnes & Noble in Chicago sits on Clybourn Avenue, in a part of the city where industrial buildings have been replaced by strip malls and big-box stores. The rent here is no doubt cheaper than on State and Elm. And, of course, there is parking. Curiously, there’s a proposal to replace the Clybourn strip mall where Barnes & Noble rents space with yet another apartment building.
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Change in population by “race” and Hispanic/Latinx status, Chicago area, 2010-2014/2018

The Census Bureau released the 2014/2018 American Community Survey (ACS) tract-level data last December, and I’m afraid I’ve been a little slow to download and analyze any of the numbers. One reason is that I didn’t think that there would be much difference between the 2014/2018 data and those for 2013/2017. I don’t know exactly how the Census Bureau operates, but I suspect that each new ACS data set involves discarding one year’s numbers and adding figures for the new year. Thus, four-fifths of the data in a new edition of ACS should be exactly the same as in the previous edition, and, when nothing very distinctive happens in either the first or last year of the six-year period covered by two succeeding ACS releases, you wouldn’t expect the numbers in the two releases to be very different. A close look at the 2014/2018 data suggests I was right. Maps showing changes from 2010 to 2014/2018 look very much like those showing changes from 2010 to 2013/2017. But there are a few subtle differences that I’ve highlighted in the text below.

These maps are comparable to the 2000-2010, 1990-2000, and 1980-1990 maps that I made while working at the University of Chicago Library’s Map Collection and to the 2010-2013/2017, 2010-2012/2016, and 2010-2011/2015 maps that I put on this blog in 2019, 2018, and 2017. I’m guilty of using some of the same prose on this post that I did in previous years, modified where appropriate.

Note the following:

[1] ACS data are for five-year periods, not single years. These maps show changes between April 1, 2010, and the 2014/2018 period.

[2] ACS data are not as accurate as decennial census data or as the long-form data that they replace. They are based on a sample, and it’s a much smaller sample than was used to compile the long-form data. The margins of error can be huge, especially for smaller numbers. Thus, at the tract level, these data are at best only rough approximations. The sample sizes are large enough so that general trends should be meaningful, but it’s perhaps best not to pay too much attention to the figures for individual census tracts.

[3] The “race” data for non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic African-Americans, and non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders include only people who classified themselves as being of a single race. This covers the overwhelming majority of respondents. It’s possible, however, that including people who identified themselves as being “multiracial” would have affected the results substantially for a few tracts in the city of Chicago. I’m not sure that there’s any unambiguously correct way to apportion these data, however.

[4] The boundary of the city of Chicago is shown on these maps by a heavy black line. Freeways are shown in blue. Tract boundaries are shown in dark gray on the vicinity maps. The location of dots within tracts is random.

Some general conclusions:

The Chicago area gained very few if any people between 2010 and 2014/2018, but there were some noticeable changes in the distribution of its population by “race” and Hispanic/Latinx status. Most distributional shifts continued those of earlier decades, but there were some subtle changes as well.

[1] There continued to be a substantial increase in the number of non-Hispanic white people in the city of Chicago, especially in the area around the Loop and on the North and Northwest Sides. There was also a modest influx of non-Hispanic whites in Pilsen, eastern Humboldt Park, western Austin, and Bronzeville. Older, formerly mostly white inner suburbs (as well as some “bungalow belt” districts in the outer city) continued to lose some of their white population. There was also an increase in white population in certain outer suburbs despite the fact that there wasn’t that much outer-suburb greenfield construction in this post-recession period.

[2] Problem-ridden African-American neighborhoods like Englewood continued to lose population. Healthier, mostly African-American neighborhoods like Bronzeville continued to gain population (including some non-African-American population). There was also a gain in African-American population in many suburban areas, especially south of Chicago but elsewhere as well. There have also been African-American gains here and there in the city of Chicago, for example, in Rogers Park and in the Southwest Side “bungalow belt.” Many of the areas into which African-Americans have been moving are majority white. Chicago continues, very slowly, to desegregate.

[3] Asian(-American) population declined in some of the Far North Side enclaves where Asians had concentrated in earlier decades, but it increased in many other tracts not far away. There was a continued growth of Asian population near the Loop and west of Chinatown—in Bridgeport and McKinley Park, for example—and in many suburban areas, especially in the West and Northwest. Except for Chinatown, no part of the Chicago area is nearly all Asian. Middle-class and wealthy Asians tend increasingly to live among white people of comparable economic status, with some preference for the inner parts of the region.

[4] Some traditionally Hispanic neighborhoods—Little Village, for example—lost Hispanic population, as did a few gentrifying North Side neighborhoods—Logan Square and parts of West Town, for example. But Hispanic population grew substantially in a great many other places, for example, further north and west on the North Side, further west on the South Side, and throughout the suburbs. There was also apparently an influx of Hispanics in many of the outer-city and inner-suburban tracts where non-Hispanic white population was down.

Even more clearly than a year ago, it’s possible to summarize these maps by saying that white people, who traditionally were more inclined to flee to the suburbs than any other group, are favoring the city, while minority groups, historically disposed (or forced) to take up inner-city residence, are increasingly moving outward. This radical change in the character of Chicago urbanism is not new. It goes back for thirty and more years and shows no signs of changing.

Here’s a set of maps of Chicago and vicinity:

Maps, population change by "race" and Hispanic/Latinx status, 2010-2014/2018, Chicago and vicinity

And here’s a set of maps of the Chicago region:

Maps, population change by "race" and Hispanic/Latinx status, 2010-2014/2018, Chicago region

(Vicinity maps corrected on May 27.)

 

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Pedestrian life in Chicago during the Coronavirus Pandemic

There have been hundreds of newspaper stories describing the emptiness of American cities during the Coronavirus Pandemic. This view doesn’t jibe with what I’ve observed at all. I’ll gladly admit that my experience during six weeks of “lockdown” (ever since March 16) may be distinctive. I haven’t been further than three miles from my apartment in southeastern Uptown, Chicago, for six weeks.1 I’ve been all over Lake View, Edgewater, Lincoln Park, Lincoln Square, and North Center, but I haven’t been downtown or, in fact, anywhere near it. And one of the things I couldn’t help but notice is that there have actually been more people walking about than there usually are, at least at certain times of day.

One reason for this is that the lockdown in Chicago (as elsewhere in North America) has been far less strict than the lockdowns in, say, Spain, France, China, or India.2 Residents have been encouraged to go outside to exercise, with the proviso that they must be willing to obey the social-distancing rules of which the most important has been: keep at least six feet from anyone else. It appears that a significant portion of the population, at least on nice days, has been taking advantage of this. Since gyms and the Lakefront parks have been closed,3 anyone wanting exercise has had to use neighborhood streets.

Take Broadway between Diversey Parkway and (roughly) Addison Street, for example, a stretch just over a mile long, lying entirely in the Lake View community area. This has been one of Chicago’s best walking streets for something like the last forty years (and maybe longer), at least if you judge the quality of a walking street by the number of pedestrians it attracts. On weekends and in early evenings, the street has always been crowded for as long as I’ve known it, even on days when it’s been exceptionally cold, snowy, hot, or rainy. There really is no time of day or night, however, when the street has been without pedestrians. There are any number of reasons for this, of which the most important is surely that the neighborhoods adjoining Broadway are by Chicago standards pretty heavily populated, with densities of something like 15,000 per square kilometer. Thus, walking is the most efficient way to move short distances.

During the lockdown, I haven’t seen Broadway anything like as crowded as it has traditionally gotten on, say, weekend afternoons, but there have still often been a huge number of pedestrians on the street. Peak hours, however, have changed. With so many people working from home (or not working at all), nice weather seems to be the main factor in bringing out crowds. The fact that, during the last two-thirds of April, it’s been rather chilly and wet in Chicago has perhaps made pleasant days all the more enticing.

Broadway and Aldine Avenue, Chicago, Illinois.

Pedestrians walking along Broadway at Aldine Avenue this week. Note the masks—and the number of people walking in the street.

Neighborhood residential streets have also been very nearly as busy as they usually are. Again, there seem to be some changes in the usage patterns. There isn’t any longer a strong rush hour peak since many fewer people have been commuting to work. There have been some pretty dramatic peaks on nice afternoons, however.

Many of Chicago’s more pedestrian-oriented North Side neighborhoods, in other words, seem to be about as bustling as they were before the Pandemic arrived. While I can’t imagine anyone arguing that the Coronavirus Pandemic is anything other than a horrifying event, it has not emptied the streets of at least one part of one city.

There has, however, been one major problem. Most people seem to be taking the social-distancing guidelines quite seriously and are thus trying to avoid coming close to other people. But Chicago’s sidewalks don’t make this easy. The effective width of sidewalks in Chicago varies enormously, but few provide six feet of walking space. Even when they do, for example, along much of Broadway, the width of the sidewalk is curtailed severely by trees, bus-stop benches, bike racks, bike-share stations, light poles, newspaper boxes, electronic parking meters, wastebaskets, and fences enclosing now-empty restaurant seating areas.

Pedestrians, Broadway at Stratford Place, Chicago, Illinois.

Pedestrians and cyclists along Broadway at Stratford Place. Note how street furniture reduces the sidewalk’s effective width. Before the corner restaurant’s recent closure, it had a fenced-in outdoor dining area between the trees.

On residential streets, sidewalks are typically a great deal narrower than six feet. Even where the distance between the lot line and the street is more than this, much of it is often taken up by substantial strips of vegetation called “parkways” in Chicago’s vanishing working-class English.

Grace Street west of Damen Avenue, Chicago, Illinois.

Pedestrians in the neighborhood called Saint Ben’s by many locals (it’s part of the North Center community area). Note the narrow pavement—and the wide “parkway.”

As a result, walking on Chicago’s sidewalks these days often forces people closer than six feet from each other. Alternatively, it requires constant lateral moves, to the edge of the sidewalk for example, or onto the parkways or front lawns, or even into the street. I’ve sometimes found myself making substantial swerves two or three times a block. And it’s become normal to see people walking (or running) in the roadway. Because traffic levels are way down, this isn’t as unsafe as one might think, but it’s hardly desirable.

Pedestrians, Leland Avenue west of Ravenswood Avenue, Lincoln Square, Chicago, Illinois.

Pedestrians walking in the street on Leland Avenue, west of Ravenswood Avenue, in the neighborhood often called Ravenswood, which is part of the Lincoln Square community area.

The situation would almost seem designed to keep people home. Perhaps this isn’t a bad thing, but it’s somewhat at odds with the government’s professed desire to encourage exercise.

So far Chicago’s government has resisted the “slow streets” movement that has opened some roadways to pedestrian and bicycle traffic in Oakland, New York, and elsewhere. The mayor claims that, in driving around the city, she hasn’t noticed any problems. Perhaps she should try walking.

Note added 5 June 2020. Chicago’s Department of Transportation announced on May 29 that it would create some “shared streets” comparable to other cities’ “slow streets.” The first opened on June 1. For a blog post on this, click here.

  1. Real estate brokers prefer to refer to the area as Buena Park, since Uptown to many Chicagoans conjures a neighborhood of SROs, halfway houses,  scattered-site public housing projects, shootings, and poverty, a stereotype that comes closest to being accurate for central Uptown, an area that’s actually been the site of quite a lot of new middle-class housing in recent years.
  2. It’s pretty clear that countries that have declared—and enforced—a stricter lockdown have generally controlled Covid-19 more successfully than the United States has. It’s beyond the scope of this blog to consider the implications of this fact.
  3. Mayor Lori Lightfoot ordered the Lakefront parks closed on March 26, arguing that too many people had flocked there on March 25, a relatively warm day. It’s not clear to me that pushing these people onto city streets has solved the problem. It’s conceivable that it could even have increased the number of infections.
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Miami Beach Walk comes close to being finished

I recently spent a week in Miami Beach, where I was delighted to discover that, since my last visit there two years ago, what is now known at Miami Beach Walk had been more or less completed. This is a path for pedestrians and (in most places) cyclists that runs from South Pointe, at the southern end of Miami Beach Island, to the northern edge of Bal Harbour, at the northern end of the island, a distance of approximately 16 km (ten miles). There are extensions along Biscayne Bay at its southern end and to the bridge to Haulover Park at its northern end.

Map of Miami Beach and vicinity, Florida, emphasizing pedestrian facilities.

Map of Miami Beach and vicinity. The dark green lines represent “pedestrian facilities.” The dark green line along the Atlantic shows Miami Beach Walk. GIS data are from the Geofabrik version of OpenStreetMap. I’ve modified the data quite a lot.

Two years ago, there were still major gaps, for example, in southern South Beach and north of Mid-Beach between 47th Street and roughly 64th Street, where the path disappeared and pedestrians had to walk either through loose sand on the beach or else along sidewalks a block or so to the west. For those walking or running, the sidewalk route was not a major hardship. Miami Beach probably has more pedestrians over a larger area than any other place in the whole American South, and while many sidewalks are rather narrow, they are generally in good shape. Still, it’s nicer to have a dedicated path (and the 47th-to-64th segment, between Mid-Beach and North Beach, is in the least pedestrian-friendly part of Miami Beach).

The new sections of path are all surfaced with ornamental tiles (“pavers”) and are mostly quite wide. There are almost always sand dunes followed by beach to the east, and there’s often an impressive row of substantial apartment buildings or hotels just to the west, interspersed in a few spots by classic art deco structures. Like many of the world’s other successful new urban recreational paths, Miami Beach Walk provides an intense view of a distinctive landscape. There are constant reminders that you are where you are.

Miami Beach Walk, Miami Beach, Florida.

One of the newer sections of Miami Beach Walk.

The Walk’s new sections appear to be attracting quite a lot of users of whom more than half were walking when I was there; the rest were running or cycling. Many users are clearly visitors. There may be no recreational path in North America where so many foreign languages can be heard.

I say “more or less completed” above, because the boardwalk that’s run through much of South Beach for several decades is slowly being replaced by a surface path that, like the new sections, is covered by ornamental tile. Many people love the boardwalk—it has a nice old-timey feel and, since it mostly runs on stilts through heavily vegetated sand dunes, it interferes less with dune flora and fauna than a solid surface would.

Miami Beach Boardwalk, Florida.

Miami Beach Boardwalk.

But a boardwalk requires constant maintenance to replace broken slats, hammer in loose nails, and remove splinters, which are a major hazard in a place where many people go barefoot or would like to ride a bicycle. (Bicycles have been forbidden on the boardwalk for years.) Thus, two sections of Miami Beach Walk were closed when I was there for boardwalk replacement. In both cases there are reasonable alternate routes.

Construction along Miami Beach Walk, Florida.

Area where the old boardwalk is being replaced by ornamental tiles that rest on the surface.

There are also some detours in North Beach for construction work, notably between 79th and 87th Street, where it’s necessary to divert through North Shore Open Space Park.

The city of Miami Beach ends at approximately 87th Street. North of there, you’re first in Surfside and then in Bal Harbour, where there are parallel bicycling and walking paths surfaced with crushed gravel to the end of the island. Some people prefer these to the paver paths—except when it rains. The Surfside and Bal Harbour segments feel like an extension of Miami Beach Walk, but it may not be correct to label them that.

Miami Beach Walk, Surfside, Florida.

Miami Beach Walk in Surfside, where the surface is made of crushed gravel.

It’s not surprising of course that a well-off city that depends heavily on tourism would build a high-quality path for pedestrians and cyclists. But Miami Beach really is a city, and many conflicting points-of-view have to be accommodated by its government. In the case of Miami Beach Walk, some owners of apartments just inland from the beach were not pleased to have a public path at their doorstep, and it wasn’t easy to persuade them to get on board. Most apartment buildings and hotels along the Walk now have private, locked entrances on their eastern (Walk) side that have mollified their residents. But these buildings are still creating a problem. Miami Beach Walk includes three stretches where it’s quite a distance from one connection between the Walk and the nearest street to the next. Private property gets in the way.

Miami Beach Walk, despite its imperfections, seems to me one of the United States’ most distinctive and attractive pedestrian and cycling spaces.

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Bangkok keeps building rail lines outward

I rode three new rail transit lines while in Bangkok last month: the extension of the MRT Blue Line west to Lak Song; the MRT Blue Line connection between Tao Poon and Tha Phra; and the BTS Light Green Line extensions to Kheha and Kasetsart University. Except for the relatively short part of the MRT line that extends from Hua Lamphong through Chinatown and Rattanakosin then under the Chao Phraya River, these lines are all elevated, so it’s easy to get at least a rough sense of what the areas they pass through are like.

Rail transit lines (including those under construction) and pedestrian facilities, Bangkok, Thailand

Rail transit lines and pedestrian facilities in the Bangkok area. “U/C” = under construction. The lines labeled “U/C I” are scheduled to open over roughly the next year. The lines labeled “U/C II” are supposed to open in two or three years. Base GIS data from the Geofabrik versions of OpenStreetMap, modified somewhat.

What struck me most about all three lines was that the territories they traverse have fairly modest densities. The built environment along the lines consists mostly of smallish apartment buildings, row houses, factories, and ground-floor automobile-oriented retail establishments. There are a few taller apartment buildings, but they are in the minority. There are also a couple of shopping malls, but most commerce along the lines is pretty small-scale. There is a huge amount of traffic almost everywhere. Here’s a photo looking west from the Lak Song Station.

Lak Song station vicinity, Bangkok, Thailand.

Looking west from the Lak Song station on the westernmost station on the MRT Blue Line, Bangkok.

Because the stations themselves tend to be located in pedestrian-unfriendly territory at some distance from the places passengers are actually coming from or going to, the rail lines need some help. There are always taxis, motorcycle taxis, buses, and vans waiting at the stations for passengers.

Vicinity of Kheha Station, Bangkok, Thailand.

Looking north from the Kheha station on the BTS Light Green Line. Note the modest height of most buildings and the waiting taxis on the right.

The stations in these modest environments can seem overwhelmingly large-scale.

Kheha sttaion, BTS Light Green Line, Bangkok, Thailand.

The Kheha terminus station on the BTS Light Green Line. The station (like most elevated stations in Bangkok) includes an elaborate mezzanine with a few shops.

When you consider that the new lines all use heavy-rail equipment and have frequent service, the routes chosen seemed in some respects a little odd. It wasn’t surprising that, for the several kilometers nearest their terminals, the trains I was in were all rather empty even during rush hour.

Lak Song station, Bangkok, Thailand.

Passengers waiting for a signal to enter an MRT Blue Line train at the terminus station, Lak Song.

Of course, rail transit lines are often emptier near their endpoints than in the central city, but Bangkok’s lines—jammed near the new CBD around Siam Square and along Silom and Sukhumvit Roads—are an extreme example of this tendency.

It’s pretty clear that the lines’ apparently odd geography is rooted in the distinctive urban geography of Bangkok. The Bangkok Metropolitan Area is huge. The most recent (2019) edition of Demographia World Urban Areas puts its population at 16,045,000. But Bangkok is not a particularly dense place by Asian standards. Demographia World Urban Areas says that Bangkok covered 3043 square kilometers.1 That means that it had a population density of 5,300 per square kilometer. In other words, it was a tenth as dense as Hong Kong, a fifth as dense as Singapore, and a third as dense as Jakarta.2

There are any number of reasons for Bangkok’s relatively modest population density. The city, of course, has few topographic or political barriers to expansion. Then there is the fact that most Thais if they can tend to prefer living in single-family houses or row houses, although many end up in smallish apartment buildings. Just as in the United States, only a minority prefer (or can afford) to live in inner-city high-rise apartments.3 Another reason for Bangkok’s diffuseness may be the fact that Bangkok came rather late to rail transit. Much of its growth occurred during a period when the assumption was that most movement would occur by private motor vehicle, and residential and commercial buildings outside the central city (and even informal settlements) tend to include space for parking. Finally, less of the city has been built or planned by the government than is the case with many Asian cities, notably Singapore and Hong Kong. There is only a modest public-housing program, and the government has not been very authoritarian about what should go where. It has also had a pretty laissez-faire attitude toward automobile ownership. Curiously, it has not been very energetic about building roads either, except perhaps freeways, which makes Bangkok’s sprawl an even more difficult problem than it might otherwise have been. There just isn’t enough space on Bangkok’s highways for all the vehicles that Bangkok’s residents own.

One of the consequences of Bangkok’s car-centric development is that not only its housing but also its higher-order commercial and administrative functions are quite spread out. The city doesn’t appear to have a very clearly articulated hierarchy of sub-centers, and its newish central business district, maybe 5 km east of the old center of Rattanokosin on the Chao Phraya River, is also rather diffuse, although perhaps no more so than central business districts in places like Manhattan, London, or Tokyo. As in New York and London, the major CBD functions of high-end retailing, office work, and entertainment are scattered over a dozen or more square kilometers. Its CBD, in other words, is big enough so that movement within it often requires mechanical transport of some sort.

Bangkok’s diffuseness obviously presents a problem if you’re planning a rail system. Rail systems work best when they can focus on important nodes. If nodes are dispersed or not all that important to begin with, rail systems are going to fit the urban landscape awkwardly at best.

Bangkok reluctantly started work on a modern rail transit system only when the problems of its car-centric development became obvious to all. By the 1980s its freeways and—even more—its arterial highways were so overburdened that traffic at certain times of day could hardly move. Furthermore, air pollution levels were absurdly high. The development of urban rail transit seemed the only way out. An additional push in this direction was given by the fact that visitors to the city increasingly found the absence of any serious modern rail system strange.4 And what visitors say has increasingly mattered as Bangkok has become an ever more important tourist destination (it’s been claiming in recent years to be the most visited city in the world).

The early years of rail development were not very happy ones (see my earlier post), and the result was a bit haphazard, but, after the two Green Lines opened in 1999 and the Blue Line followed in 2004, Bangkok at least had rail transit stations over much of its new CBD, and even had a rail connection to Suvarnabhumi Airport when the Airport Rail Link opened in 2010, although the absence of fare integration or easy connections among its three separate systems was clearly a barrier to their full use.

In recent years, the government has become a much more important force in planning rail transit. Most of the conversations on the subject of where the lines should go, and most of the documents about this are quite reasonably in Thai only. Unfortunately, I don’t read Thai, but I’ve been able infer the general outlines of these plans from talking with people and reading news stories in the Bangkok Post.

The overriding goal of transit planning in recent years has been to bring rail transit to as much of the city as possible. Because subways are so expensive to build, especially given Bangkok’s high water table, most of the new lines are elevated railways, and the critical thing has thus been finding corridors wide enough to run them along. This alone explains the distinctive patterns of the recently opened extensions of the Light Green and Blue Lines. They were built over fairly straight roads that take them a long way from the central city. This is especially true of southern Light Green Line extension, which runs 23 stops—and 45 minutes—from Siam Square. Its terminus is near the point where unambiguously urban structures peter out.

Additional construction on a very large scale is now under way (see map above). One of its distinctive characteristics is that none of the new lines will serve the central city at all. All the new lines are being built along corridors where construction of elevated rail lines is fairly straightforward. The Light and Dark Red Lines that may open this year run along railroad corridors and will terminate at Bang Sue. An impressive new railroad station is under construction here, several kilometers north of the new CBD, but it’s not a major destination yet. Bang Sue does have connecting Blue Line service. The Dark Red Line passes near the old Don Mueang Airport and is supposed to reach Thammasat University eventually, but it generally traverses a corridor whose most distinctive characteristic may be that massive amounts of stop-and-go traffic run through it. The Orange, Yellow, and Pink Lines on which construction has begun but that probably won’t be functional for two or three (or more) years serve a vast area in eastern and northern Bangkok and also completely miss the central city. They are described as “feeder lines” in some of the official literature.5

When these lines are finished, northern and eastern Bangkok will have a thin grid of rail lines, built for the most part over major highways and railroads in territory where traffic is heavy, sidewalks are irregular, and walking is difficult. But, even aside from the pedestrian-unfriendly territory through which these lines are being built, there is the issue that most passengers bound for central-city destinations like Siam Square or Silom Road will have to change trains. Thus, many of the journeys will take quite some time, especially as all of the trains will make stops fairly frequently. (The distance between stations will vary but seems to average something like a kilometer.) Because there will not be any new lines in the CBD, it’s likely that trains on the existing Blue and Green Lines will become even more crowded during the middle parts of their runs than they are now. (There is a possibility of using longer trains on these lines and running some trains over only part of the right-of-way, something already done on the Light Green Line.) An outsider like me, used to rail lines in dense, walkable neighborhoods, can’t help but wonder how many passengers will actually make their way to the stations on these new lines. Let me add, however, that the Airport Rail Link, which runs through similar territory, has had no trouble attracting riders. Its builders thought of it as a line that would mostly serve airport passengers. Plenty of airport passengers do use it, but it turns out that the vast majority of riders are commuters going to and from destinations in eastern Bangkok other than the Airport. Bangkok’s residents are used to difficult commutes.

I’m fascinated by the seriousness with which Bangkok’s planners have moved toward adding rail to a city that until the last couple of decades did not have modern rail lines at all. Due to the absence of such rail lines and a determinedly laissez-faire attitude to development and motor-vehicle ownership, Bangkok (like Jakarta and Manila and many other big cities in middle-income countries) has become a diffuse and sprawling place that rail lines arguably are destined to fit awkwardly. I have no idea whether the result of the new rail construction will be (as some are certainly hoping) to nudge Bangkok in the direction of becoming a denser and less automobile-dependent (and “greener” and less polluted) city. Rising property values along the rail lines and substantial amounts of new construction around the new CBD might suggest that the city is indeed becoming more concentrated, at least to a limited extent, but these changes may be connected with displacement of poor people to the periphery and their replacement by a smaller number of the wealthy. That is, rail construction could (as in some other places) be encouraging sprawl as much as greater concentration. I haven’t seen figures but suspect that much (and maybe most) new construction in Bangkok is far from the CBD and not necessarily anywhere near the new rail lines. I don’t in any case see much sign that an autocentric culture is being tamed in any way.

Most of the conversation on the new rail lines focuses on their theoretical ability to reduce traffic congestion and air pollution. But it’s not lost on anyone who thinks about these things that Bangkok, a hot city much of which is barely above sea level, is one of the places likely to suffer most acutely from climate change. There isn’t much that Thailand can do on its own to stop sea-level rise, but the national government is quite aware that it needs to do something. It’s signed the Paris Agreement, and it’s taken numerous steps to implement it. For example, it’s converted some coal-burning power plants to natural gas. The new rail lines are supposed to be laying the groundwork for a substantial modal shift away from the automobile and hence an additional reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Only time will tell whether this is a pious hope or a realistic scenario.

  1. One could question the Demographia World Urban Areas estimates, which are compiled in part under the direction of Wendell Cox, who is of course widely reviled by some as an anti-transit zealot. But the figures given in Demographia appear to have been compiled in a pretty consistent way, and they are not out-of-line with figures available from other sources. And they have the great advantage of being more up-to-date than competing estimates.
  2. Figures: Hong Kong: population 7,435,000, area 285 km2, population per km2 26,100; Singapore: population 5,670,000, area 518 km2, population per km2 10,900; Jakarta: population 34,365,000, area 3,367 km2, population per km2 10,200. Note that it’s only in the context of Asian cities that Bangkok has a modest population density. Bangkok’s density is much higher than that of any U.S. metropolitan area, and even higher than that of most U.S. central cities. It’s a little higher than that of the city of Boston—over an area twenty-five times as large.
  3. A couple of years ago, Bangkok’s stock of high-rise apartment buildings ranked 12th in the world, and these buildings are of course a highly visible feature of Bangkok’s skyline, but they contain only a tiny percentage of Bangkok’s dwelling units.
  4. Bangkok does have a meter-gauge railway that carries thousands of passengers a day, but the system has hundreds of grade crossings; parts of it are single-track; none of it is electrified; trains are inevitably slow; and its terminal at Hua Lamphong is in an awkward location, at least without an urban rail transit system to take passengers further (the Blue Line has been doing this since 2004). Bangkok is beginning to use the rail corridors for modern elevated railroads (for example, the Airport Rail Link), but this change has been a long time coming.
  5. The Orange Line is supposed to be extended southwest in phase II, but that won’t be for many years. The Orange Line also differs from the Yellow and Pink Lines in that its westernmost portion will be in subway. The location of the Pink Line seems particularly awkward if you assume that most passengers will want to get to the CBD.
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Doha tries to become more “sustainable”

I spent the third week of January in Doha, Qatar. I’d been there only once before, on a one-day trip from Dubai in 2010.

On the earlier trip, I’d been extremely impressed by the Corniche—and wasn’t much taken by anything else. The little bit of Doha I saw then seemed as spread-out and automobile-oriented as any city in the world.

Skyline, West Bay, Doha, Qatar.

West Bay’s impressive skyline in 2010, viewed from the southeastern end of the Corniche. There has been a considerable amount of infill since then, but Doha has resisted the construction of any new skyscraper that towers over its neighbors, an approach that I think makes the skyline as a whole more imposing.

The current, much longer trip confirmed some of my earlier impressions, but I was fascinated by the government’s efforts over the last decade and a half to make Doha a more “sustainable” city.

Let me explain.1.

The Corniche is a pedestrian path between the old downtown (and the I.M.-Pei-designed Museum of Islamic Art) at its southeast end and Doha’s stunning business district, West Bay, at its northeast end. The path curves around a bay, so that, at any point on the path, you can see the whole length of the Corniche.

Map, Doha, emphasizing rail lines and pedestrian facilities.

Map of Doha and vicinity, focusing on rail lines and pedestrian facilities. GIS data are mostly from the Geofabrik version of OpenStreetMap. I’ve had to modify the data quite a lot.

 

Map, central Doha, emphasizing rail lines and pedestrian facilities

Map of central Doha, focusing  on rail lines and pedestrian facilities. Data sources as in previous map.

The central part of the path is approximately 5 km long, but there are formal and informal extensions at both ends, and the Corniche’s length is usually given as 7 km. If you include the paths in the gardens behind the Museum of Islamic Art in the southeast and in the Hotel Park in the northeast, the distance you can walk along the bay is actually longer than 7 km.

Corniche, Doha, Qatar.

Fishermen and others on one of the piers that jut out from the Corniche.

The Corniche attracts quite a number of users, apparently from all of Qatar’s ethnic groups and economic strata, although, as is the case with many pedestrian paths, the composition of people using it changes over the course of a day. Early in the morning and at midday, runners and more or less serious walkers are common, and Western expatriates and tourists seem to be represented out of all proportion to their share of the population. Later in the afternoon and on weekends, many more people use the path simply for sitting around and socializing, and the proportion of native Qataris as well as of ethnic South Asians, Filipinos, and others (many of whom are service and construction workers) rises. The Corniche appears to be an enormously successful place.

Corniche, Doha, Qatar.

The Corniche in the afternoon.

The Corniche is not, however, perfect. There is little shade, especially in its middle reaches, and it’s awfully close to a busy highway, which isn’t easy to cross. There’s a single tunnel at Suq Waqif, near the southeast end; elsewhere, you need to find one of the few traffic lights and will likely have to wait a long time for it to change.

But, still, there is something about the openness of the Corniche and the views of the Gulf and of West Bay’s skyscrapers and of the much more modest skyline of the old downtown that is deeply attractive. I’d go so far as to say that Doha’s Corniche is one of the world’s most distinctive—and appealing—urban pedestrian paths.

The rest of the city is not quite so special. As is the case with the other big cities of the Gulf, Doha’s speedy growth from the 1970s on has until recently been based more or less completely on the assumption that everyone would get around by automobile, even though few members of the subaltern labor force have access to a car. The environment for pedestrians is hostile. Major roads away from the old city center tend to be wide. Traffic moves quickly. The most desirable housing has traditionally consisted in large measure of single-family structures surrounded by walls. It’s not much fun to walk in neighborhoods consisting of such houses, even when sidewalks are available, which they’re often not. Sidewalks that do exist are fair game for parking, even in West Bay.

West Bay, Doha, Qatar.

Parking on a sidewalk in West Bay. West Bay’s cluster of skyscrapers is generally quite automobile-oriented. There are generally not very many pedestrians.

Walking any kind of distance in the city is difficult, even aside from the problems caused by summer heat. Many intersections feature roundabouts, just about the most pedestrian-hostile of all non-limited-access road forms. There are occasional traffic lights, and they’re usually obeyed, but they just about never provide a moment when pedestrians have priority. Since drivers do not feel they ever have to cede to pedestrians, even when making turns, it can be quite difficult to cross streets safely. There are crosswalks here and there, but they appear to have no effect at all on drivers.

Of course, it’s not surprising that a country whose wealth is based almost entirely on the export of oil and natural gas would become car-dependent, especially when its only large city did not begin to grow substantially until the 1970s. Gas is cheap and is never likely to run out. Pollution is not a major problem in a city consisting of a narrow strip of settlement between the Gulf and mostly flat, nearly uninhabited desert. It’s also certainly the case that the automobile fits Doha and the other new cities of the Gulf very well. Cars are just about always air-conditioned, thus providing some shelter from summer heat. They’re also an important consumer item in a society where shopping and owning things are important both in themselves and as a way to establish status. And, of course, since just about everything in the city was built to accommodate the automobile, doing without one creates constant problems.

But, as is the case with all the states of the Gulf, elite decision-makers have undergone a major change of heart over the last fifteen or so years. The car-centric city no longer  seems an unalloyed good thing, for a number of familiar overlapping reasons. The realization that the automobile-oriented city causes health problems for its inhabitants may have more resonance on the Gulf than anywhere else; native Gulf residents have higher BMIs and are more likely to have diabetes than any of the world’s other well-off peoples. Arguments that invoke climate change have also seemed particularly strong given that major parts of all the Gulf’s newly substantial cities lie only a few meters above sea level. There is also concern about the area’s future and a strong sense that one must diversify the economy. Thus, all the Gulf countries have done what they could to build tourist and financial-services industries. To do this, they’ve had to become attractive to tourists and skilled expatriates, which has involved becoming less car-oriented. Closely related to this is a desire on the part of essentially defenseless states to be well thought of. The fact that Qatar sends more carbon into the atmosphere per capita than any other country in the world now seems rather embarrassing. The result of these and other factors is that there’s been a push in the direction of at least reducing the role of oil-based transportation everywhere. One component of this turn has been an effort to rethink the design of cities. (See my earlier posts on Dubai and Abu Dhabi.)2

Doha has arguably been in a better position than any other Gulf city to remake itself. Its chief advantage is its wealth. Qatar by many measures has a per capita income higher than that of any other country in the world. Its wealth is of course not distributed equally. Its expatriate manual and service workers live financially precarious lives, while its citizens (who constitute only something like twelve percent of the population) receive a huge amount of official support. Much of Qatar’s wealth goes to its government, which, even after putting a large portion of its revenues into a sovereign wealth fund, has enormous resources to invest in urban infrastructure—and the political power to spend as it sees fit.

The government has used some of its wealth to make Qatar a more “sustainable” place. Its urban geography has been altered in two major ways: [1] Dense neighborhoods have been created in several places; and [2] New rail infrastructure has been built.

[1] Dense new neighborhoods that encourage walking.

Suq Waqif. When I was in Doha in 2010, I found its old downtown a somewhat unappealing place. There wasn’t much there that was very “downtown”-like. There were few major businesses or government offices. There didn’t appear to be any older buildings. Most of the generally low- or medium-rise structures in the old downtown were post-World-War-II apartment blocks whose inhabitants appeared to be mostly South Asian workers.

I didn’t realize it then, but there had been a major fire at Suq Waqif (properly Sūq Wāqif سوق واقف), an old downtown commercial district, in 2003. I was seeing this area at its nadir.

In the years since the fire—and especially in the years after 2010—the government has completely rebuilt Suq Waqif and has chosen to do so in a kind of traditional Arabian style.

Suq Waqif, Doha, Qatar.

A street of restaurants and souvenir shops that bisects Suq Waqif. Much narrower (and sometimes covered) side streets feature shops.

Hardly any of the buildings, however, include genuinely old components. Most were constructed from scratch, using modern materials reworked to look old. Why use mud brick that you’d have to keep repairing when you can make concrete look like mud brick? The result, comparable to, say, Qianmen Pedestrian Street in Beijing, could be ridiculed for being a Disneyfied simulacrum of a traditional city. But I found it all surprisingly appealing. And so do many Qataris and tourists. The restaurants on its main street are full of people from all over the world, including (it appears) numerous local folk. And the shops on the narrow side streets are clearly patronized to a very large extent by Qataris. It’s not likely that tourists would want to buy, say, live rabbits or falcons, or kitchenware, or traditional unrevealing women’s clothing.

The new Suq Waqif has apparently been enormously successful, and it’s been growing continuously. Note that walking is practically the only way you can move around the central part of Suq Waqif. Most of its paths are too narrow for motor vehicles. In this respect, it’s completely different from most of post-1970 Doha.

Msheireb. Msheireb (the spelling approximates the Gulf Arabic pronunciation of Mushayrib مشيرب) is an area just to the west of Suq Waqif. In English it’s sometimes called “Downtown Doha,” and its location indeed corresponds more or less to the center of the old central business district. But this is not a CBD that’s evolved slowly over many decades. It’s essentially a contemporary real-estate development that replaces most of what was there before. It consists largely of medium-sized, more or less modern buildings on narrow streets (sometimes there are some Arab decorative motifs). The buildings mostly house offices of various sorts. The National Archives and some additional government buildings are also part of the mix. In addition, housing is planned.

Msheireb, Doha, Qatar.

Street scene in Msheireb.

The claim is that Msheireb is a “sustainable” development. Many buildings are LEED-certified. It’s said to be built in a style that’s appropriate for the climate, and, indeed, because of the narrow streets, there is plenty of shade. One of the streets—Sikkat al-Wadi Msheireb—has some water features that, thanks to evaporation, are supposed to help keep the street cool during the hot season. This is also one of the streets on which a 2.1 km tram line loop runs (more on this below).

I was struck in walking around Msheireb at how many of the people you see there seem to be native Qatari, at least if one can determine ethnicity on the basis of people’s clothing and facial features.

One of the characteristics of Msheireb is that it is walkable. There are several pedestrian-only streets, and there are good sidewalks (sometimes in arcades that provide shade). It is not at all like the areas of Doha that grew up between, roughly, 1970 and 2010.

The Pearl. The Pearl is a real-estate development on made land in northern Doha that was designed in part to appeal to Western expatriates. (It’s one of the only parts of the city where foreign ownership of real estate is allowed.) Much of it is on narrow C- or O-shaped land segments that feature a road on the spine, bordered by buildings that are flush with well-maintained sidewalks. A pedestrian path runs along the water side of the buildings. The ground floor of buildings along the pedestrian path typically contains restaurants and high-end shops. The Pearl is divided into a number of sub-neighborhoods each of which is supposed to be built in a particular theoretically Mediterranean architectural style, Venetian, for example. The Pearl, on the whole, seems designed to suggest a modernized version of a large Mediterranean village, although it’s hard to imagine a real Mediterranean village with expensive Japanese, Indian, and French restaurants and boutiques selling high-end women’s clothing, all side by side.

The Pearl, Doha, Qatar.

The pedestrian path in The Pearl.

What is perhaps most striking about The Pearl in the context of Doha is that it’s so pedestrian-oriented. The waterside pedestrian path gets crowded in the evening, and it’s certainly not rare to see pedestrians walking on the sidewalks along the neighborhood’s main roads, where the more utilitarian shops (like a large Monoprix) tend to be located. In many ways, the Pearl is comparable to (although not nearly so high-rise as) the Dubai Marina development in Jumeirah. If you want to appeal to Westerners (or at least Western Europeans) these days, you have to build neighborhoods where walking is possible.

Those who are cynical might say that creating a few islands of walkability in a sea of car-centric urbanism has a limited value, but it’s certainly a beginning.

[2] New non-automotive infrastructure.

Doha Metro. The most expensive and impressive new infrastructure in Doha is its Metro, all three lines of which opened in 2019 (although one station isn’t finished yet). The Metro has approximately 76 km of lines—it’s not a small system—and approximately 85% of the routes are underground—it isn’t a cheaply-built system either. Trains are driverless, and, as is the case with many of the world’s other driverless metros, trains run often (as frequently as every two minutes) and are short, three cars long.

Metro, Doha, Qatar.

Doha Metro train leaving the Qatar University station in northern Doha, one of the few places where the tracks are outside.

As in the Dubai Metro, one car is divided into an expensive “gold class” compartment and a larger area for women and “families.” The stations have been built so that longer trains (I think five cars) are possible, but, for the moment, longer trains are probably not necessary. Most of the trains I rode were fairly but not extremely full. Few people had to stand.

Metro, Doha, Qatar.

Inside a Metro car.

The stations all have attractive consistent design that’s supposed to suggest the inside of a Bedouin tent. They also have escalators and elevators; excellent signage; platform doors; next-train arrival information; and an amazingly large number of helpful staff members.

Meyto, Msheireb, Doha, Qatar.

Msheireb station, where all three Metro lines come together.

Because the last of the three lines only opened in December, it’s too early to get a sense of how many passengers the system is attracting on a “normal” day. Last summer, when only one line was open, there were about 16,000 passengers/day (the population of the Doha Metropolitan area may be something like two and a half million), but on National Day (December 18) there were 333,000.

There has got to be a question, at least in the short term, of how useful a metro system could possibly be in a generally diffuse and low-density city. A few stations—Msheireb, for example; the stations in West Bay; and some suburban stations at shopping malls, for example, al Riffa’—are in locations where it’s possible to walk to significant destinations, but many stations appear to be, well, in the middle of nowhere, although most of these do have bus and van service. The powers-that-be are certainly aware of the problem. At least a couple of new pedestrian bridges between the Metro and useful destinations have been built, and parts of West Bay have received new and better sidewalks.

West Bay, Doha, Qatar.

Near the DECC Metro station, West Bay. Note the wide sidewalk (and the even wider street).

The system has only 37 stations. That is, it’s on average approximately 2 km between stations, a larger distance than on the majority of older metro systems. The trains can, and, it appears, often do move at 100 km/h, and even the longest rides in the system last well under an hour, but I suspect that car travel is still faster most of the time to most destinations.

The government is serious about moving as much transportation to the Metro as possible, and fares are set quite low, especially considering that Qatar is not, on the whole, a cheap place to live. Fares are 2 QAR (0.55 USD) a ride. It’s 6 QAR (1.65 USD) for a day pass. It’s also possible to get a free connecting bus or van in some places—or to take a 3-km taxi ride for 8 QAR. Bus fares—variable but 5 QAR if you buy two tickets to be used on one day—have been more expensive.

I found the Doha Metro a pretty impressive operation.

Trams. The Metro is not the only rail system in Qatar. One tram system has opened, and two others are under construction.

The open system is the Downtown Doha/Msheireb tram mentioned above, a short (2.1 km) hydrogen-fuel-cell-powered line that’s been making a one-way loop around Msheireb since the beginning of January of this year. It runs on weekdays between 9 to 12 in the morning and 4 to 9 in the evening and on Fridays between 4 and 9. There are nine stations; in other words, it stops frequently. There is no cost to ride. Nonetheless, none of the trams I saw had more than two or three passengers. The trouble with a 2.1 km loop line is that it’s never going to take you further than something like 600 m from your starting point. It’s likely to be faster to walk just about anywhere in Msheireb than to risk waiting six minutes for a tram (the next-tram information at the stops wasn’t working when I was there). Perhaps the Msheireb tram will become a more attractive option during the hot season.

No doubt I’m being a bit cynical, but, for the moment, it seems that the chief advantage of the tram may be that it gives the Msheireb Properties’ some ability to boast about its sustainable tram line. Plenty of publicity about the tram is available on the Internet.

Two larger tram systems are under construction, at Education City and at Lusail.

Education City includes Qatar’s impressive National Library, specialized branches of several American universities, and some Qatari educational institutions as well. I was struck when I visited at the extent to which Education City is laid out like certain American outer suburban university campuses. Buildings are far apart, and there are large surface parking lots. There are few trees. Those uncomfortable in the extreme heat of summer must find getting around a problem, although there are free vans. The tram system is supposed to supplement these.

Lusail is Qatar’s enormous (and enormously ambitious) “sustainable” northern extension. In so far as I could tell looking from the Metro, only a little has actually been built there yet, except for the Metro itself. A huge stadium for the 2022 World Cup games is under construction, as are some parts of a substantial (19 km) network of tram lines, but as yet there is little housing. The goal is that Lusail will not be a car-dependent place. Some of the Gulf Region’s other “sustainable” urban additions (for example, Masdar City in Abu Dhabi) have been the object of a huge amount of publicity but have not gotten very far. It’s too early though to be cynical about Lusail. Doha has a pretty good track record of getting built what it’s set out to build.

Bicycle paths. You don’t see many cyclists in Doha, except along the Corniche (where bicycles are theoretically illegal). But the government has built a few bicycle paths along major highways in the outer city, and the publicity for Msheireb/Downtown Doha suggests that bicycles are welcome there.

I was in general quite struck by Doha’s elaborate plans to transform itself into a less car-dependent city. I have no idea how successful it will be at reaching its goals. Has any car-centric place has ever actually managed to become significantly less so? But I certainly was impressed by the scale of Doha’s efforts.

  1. Most of what I write here is based on what I saw myself. But I did do my homework, checking stories in Qatar’s two major English-language newspapers, Gulf Times and The Peninsula, and also reading the most important scholarly monograph on urbanism in Doha: Ashraf M. Salama and Florian Wiedmann, Demystifying Doha : on architecture and urbanism in an emerging city. First edition. Farnham, Surrey : Ashgate, 2013.
  2. In government literature on this subject, a word that occurs again and again is “sustainability,” which is not always used in a very precise sense. As it happens, Gulf countries have one major advantage in creating what just about everyone would call “sustainability.” They are all in a position to generate vast amounts of solar power quite cheaply, something that’s not true in, say, Scandinavia. Despite the potential, Qatar still generates nearly all its electricity from its abundant supplies of natural gas. This is in most ways a separate subject from urban design, even if there are some obvious connections and considerable vocabulary overlap.
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Hong Kong creates a little more parkland

Hong Kong is (famously) not a very democratic place, but, when it comes to things that do not matter very much to the government in Beijing, there can be a considerable amount of public discussion. A case in point is the West Kowloon Cultural District. This district sits on forty hectares of reclaimed land west of Kowloon proper. It was created in the 1990s as a byproduct of the construction of rail and road facilities that were needed to provide access to the new airport on Lantau Island. Some of the reclaimed land became the site of the Kowloon MTR Station; the 118-story International Commerce Centre; an enormous shopping mall; and an area of extremely tall residential buildings.

What to do with the reclaimed land immediately to the west of the Kowloon MTR station has been the object of a huge amount of public discussion over at least the last quarter century.

West Kowloon Cultural Centre, International Commerce Building, West Kowloon, Hong Kong.

The West Kowloon Cultural Centre occupies the low-lying area in the left foreground. The largest completed building on the site (the building with blue cylinders on top) provides ventilation and offices for the Western Harbour Crossing tunnel. The tall building on the right is the International Commerce Centre, which sits on top of the Kowloon MTR station. The medium-tall dark-grey building in the right foreground is the M+ Museum, still under construction. The apartment buildings in the background run along coastal Kowloon and are some distance from West Kowloon. The photo was made from an elevated walkway near the Hong Kong-Macau Ferry Terminal, on Hong Kong Island.

Map, West Kowloon Cultural District and vicinity, Hong Kong

Map of West Kowloon Cultural District and vicinity. The high-speed rail and subway lines—as well as parts of the road-tunnel approaches—are all underground. GIS data are mostly from the Geofabrik version of OpenStreetMap. I’ve had to modify the data quite a lot.

The local government decided around the time of the Handover (1997) that it would be desirable to use much of the area for cultural facilities and parkland, both felt to be in short supply in Hong Kong. A major international competition was held to design the site. Norman Foster and Associates, which proposed building an enormous canopy over much of the area, won the contest in 2002, and there were serious discussions with foreign institutions including the Guggenheim Museum and the Pompidou Center about building starchitect-designed branches under the canopy. Many people were unhappy with this plan, however, partly because it would have been hugely expensive to implement, partly because there were doubts about the need for a special arts district, and partly because, well, there didn’t seem to be anything very distinctively “Hong Kong” about the Foster plan. Public discussion has been continuing ever since. Meanwhile, most of the site has usually been off limits, in part because most of its eastern half was needed for the construction of the underground high-speed railroad station for trains to and from the mainland that finally opened in 2018.

Eventually, a new competition was held for a new site design. This was won by Norman Foster + Partners in 2011.1 The Foster organization’s second plan was much more modest than its first one. It emphasized the building of parkland in the West Kowloon area and suggested a very slow development of the site.

Slow development is exactly what has happened. I’ve visited the area approximately once a year over the last decade, most recently last month, in December 2019. Before this last year, construction of the train station made it rather painful to get to West Kowloon, but it’s become a little easier now that the train station is open. You still have to take a circuitous route that requires trudging across an elaborate bridge that passes over the Western Harbour Crossing’s toll gates. (There is a small amount of parking, but few people in Hong Kong have access to a private car, and I certainly didn’t.)

Western Harbour crossing toll gates and pedestrian bridge, Hong Kong.

Pedestrian access to the West Kowloon Cultural District over the last year has been via a complicated pedestrian bridge that crosses the toll gates of the Western Harbour Crossing road tunnel.

Much of the West Kowloon Cultural District remains a construction zone, but three buildings are open. A major venue, the Xiqu Theatre, sits at the extreme eastern end of the district. The M+ Museum—a contemporary visual-arts museum—has set up a tiny pavilion that it’s been using for short-term exhibits, mostly of Chinese art. Freespace, a performing-arts venue has also opened. Construction for the moment has focused on a large permanent home for the M+ Museum, and the Lyric Theatre, yet another venue, this one particularly for dance. A branch of Beijing’s Palace Museum—which will concentrate on traditional Chinese arts—is supposed to be under construction on the west side of the site soon. Several other arts facilities are projected.

The second Foster plan is labelled “City Park,” and it emphasizes parkland as much as buildings. A tiny section of the projected park at the extreme western end of the site opened a couple of years ago. It included a fragment of the projected West Kowloon Promenade, a walkway along the harborfront. The parkland and walkway have grown over the last year. The new parkland includes a substantial lawn. This hardly seems like a major accomplishment, but lowland Hong Kong is strikingly short of anything as unstructured as a lawn. The two largest older central-city parks—Victoria Park in Causeway Bay and Kowloon Park in Tsim Sha Tsui—are divided into a series of small spaces devoted to particular activities; they contain very little open space.2

In other words, in Hong Kong, West Kowloon’s lawn is an unusual feature.

On weekends the lawn area is quite well-used. Many people even bring tents.

Park users, West Kowloon Cultural District, Hong Kong.

Sunday afternoon in the West Kowloon Cultural District.

On weekdays, the hard-to-get-to West Kowloon park tends to be rather empty, but there’s a steady stream of runners and walkers making use of the Cultural District’s West Kowloon Promenade. There are very few places in lowland Hong Kong where you have such wonderful views almost to yourself.

West Kowloon Promenade, Hong Kong.

The West Kowloon Promenade, West Kowloon Cultural District, late on a weekday morning.

The substantial space between the new lawn and the Xiqu Centre is still the site of construction and is essentially closed to the public (see map here). Eventually, a planned path along the harbor will surely end the isolation of the West Kowloon Cultural District.

Hong Kong, like many of the world’s great seaports, has been transforming what was once a busy, working port next to its central business district(s) into recreational space. This process has not been speedy anywhere, but, thanks in part to a slowdown necessitated by several years of public discussion, it seems to have been particularly slow in Hong Kong. One could argue about whether it makes any sense for governments to build special districts for the arts, but I can easily imagine that the completed Hong Kong Cultural District as a physical entity will be one of the world’s most thrilling urban spaces.

  1. The South China Morning Post, available online for much of the 21st century, has covered developments in the West Kowloon Cultural District in great detail. See, for example, Olga Wong and Vivienne Chow, “Second time lucky for Foster in West Kowloon arts hub,” South China Morning Post (5 March 2011).
  2. There is a good deal of open space on reclaimed land near the Star Ferry terminal in Central, but the future use of most of this land has not yet been determined, and most of the area is now off limits, with the exception of a strip along the water, where a new coastal walkway (another “promenade”) between the Star Ferry Central Pier and the Hong Kong Convention and Exposition Centre has just opened. There is a small amount of adjoining parkland, but most of this area is used for the Central Harbourfront Event Space, open only to those paying to attend an event.
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Was Chicago still building “too much” in 2018?

I’ve put up three previous posts1 in which I pointed out that, given Chicago’s continued population losses, there was an enormous amount of residential building in the Chicago urban area, or at least an enormous amount of residential-building permit-filing.

This post is intended to be a sequel.

Data for 2018 (the latest available) suggest that there have been two major changes from the immediately preceding years.

[1] Building-permit filing in the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) declined substantially. 17681 permits—valued at $3,516,676,000—were filed in 2018. The comparable figures for 2017 were 22132 and $4,186,156,000. In other words, the number of permits filed dropped 25%, and their value dropped 19%. There may have been a further drop in 2019, but data will not be released for some time. There’s still plenty of building going on, and there are plans to build still more, but there has definitely been a decline in the amount of planned building activity.2

[2] Chicago was not the only major metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to lose population between 2017 and 2018. It was joined by the only two MSAs that are larger, New York and Los Angeles. While individual cities in the United States have often lost population in the decades since World War II, MSAs have only rarely done so, and those that have (Pittsburgh, for example) have mostly been in regions of the country that were suffering major economic distress. For the three largest metropolitan areas in the country to lose population is quite unprecedented. It needs to be added that the losses in all three cases were small, and, of course, the Census Bureau estimates could be wrong. There is also the issue that all three MSAs are somewhat underbounded, and that the larger combined statistical area (CSA) of New York lost a smaller percentage of its population than its MSA, while the Los Angeles CSA gained population. (The Chicago CSA and MSA lost nearly the same percentage, which rounds to .2 percent.)

Here are two new graphs that show the same data for 2018 that I analyzed in earlier posts.3 As was the case with the earlier data, the figures are for new, privately-owned housing units only.

The first graph shows the relationship between residential building permits issued in 2018 and estimated change in population from 2017 to 2018 for American metropolitan statistical areas.

Building permits, 2018, vs. population change, 2017-2018, United States metropolitan statistical areas.

The second graph shows the relationship between the valuation (in thousands of dollars) of these 2018 residential building permits and (as in the earlier graph) estimated change in population from 2017 to 2018 for American metropolitan statistical areas.

Valuation of new building permits, 2018, vs. population change, 2017-2018, United States metropolitan statistical areas.

At first glance, the results seem comparable to those for the preceding three years. There is, in general, a very high, and extremely significant (p = .0000) correlation between the number of building permits issued and the change in population (.816, r-squared = .666) as well as between the value of these building permits and the change in population (.833, r-squared = .693) (both correlations, however, are lower than in the preceding year, when they were .906 and .909 respectively). As in past years, a few urban areas are outliers, and Chicago once again seems to be building a great deal more than its population loss suggests it should be.

Note, however, that Chicago is joined by New York and Los Angeles in apparently building more than one might have expected. There’s a simple explanation for this. Large cities, whether their populations are growing or shrinking, are likely to build more than smaller ones, if only because old buildings sometimes get replaced even in cities losing population. And, in cities with a large class of prosperous people wishing to live in relatively new central-city housing, which is the case in all three of these urban areas, there can be a huge amount of new construction.

Thus, just as last year, I set up regressions in which housing permits and housing-permit valuations were dependent variables, and population change (2017-2018 this year) and population (2018) were independent variables. Both independent variables turned out to be highly significant, with population change more significant than population. Still, adding the latter to the equation increased the correlation considerably. For the two independent variables and permits, correlation = .965 and r-squared = .931. For the two independent variables and permit valuations, correlation = .971 and r-squared = .943.

Here are two graphs that show these relationships.

The first graph shows the relationship between the actual and predicted number of 2018 permit filings on the basis of population change from 2017 to 2018 and population in 2018.

Actual vs. predicted number of new building permits, 2018, United States metropolitan statistical areas.

The second graph shows the relationship between the actual and predicted value of 2018 permit filings on the basis of population change from 2017 to 2018 and population in 2018.

Actual vs. predicted valuation of new building permits, 2018, United States metropolitan statistical areas.

Note how close the points are to the regression line. This is of course just what would except when the independent variables come close to predicting the dependent variable.

There are still some slightly anomalous cases.

The five MSAs where the number of permits filed was more than expected by the largest amount were Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise. The largest positive residuals for valuations occurred in San Antonio-New Braunfels, Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach.

The MSAs where the number of permits filed was less than expected by the largest amount were Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Austin-Round Rock, Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, and New York-Newark-Jersey City. The largest negative residuals for valuations occurred in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, and Santa Rosa (California).

Note that most of these MSAs are in the Sunbelt, where growth in the medium term has generally been substantial, but where growth has often been subject to booms and busts and where (in some cases) it was interrupted quite severely by the Great Depression. It’s also the case that the presence of these MSAs on these lists is in part a function of the fact that so much building has been taking place in them and that modest changes in percentage therefore end up being substantial in absolute terms. That could be one of the explanations for the appearance of Philadelphia and New York.

In Chicago in 2018, the number of permits filed and their value were, unlike in any of the previous years for which I have data, pretty close to the predicted value. For the moment Chicago could not be said to be building “too much.”

 

  1. In 2016, 2017 , and 2018. See these earlier posts for information on the procedures employed.
  2. There is a great deal of additional evidence that there has been a slowdown in new building of residential and other structures in Chicago. See, for example, the newspaper story: “Hometown developers of projects like Vista Tower, Lincoln Yards and Bank of America Tower are putting money in other cities. ‘We love Chicago but are super nervous,’” Chicago Tribune (2 January 2020).
  3. Data for building permits can be found here and data for population change here. The graphs were generated with PSI-Plot. The straight lines are best-fit least-squares linear regression lines.
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